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Agadir – The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 projects Morocco to hold around 5% of global battery-grade purified phosphoric acid (PPA) production capacity by 2035, despite the country controlling approximately 70% of the world’s known phosphate rock reserves.
IEA’s report points to a growing imbalance between Morocco’s vast mineral wealth and its downstream processing capacity, while projecting China to maintain its dominance over one of the battery industry’s most strategic materials.
Purified phosphoric acid is a critical component in the production of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which accounted for 55% of the global electric vehicle market and 90% of the battery energy storage market in 2025, according to the IEA.
The agency described battery-grade PPA as “a major chokepoint for battery supply chains,” warning that diversification of global production remains limited.
China currently produces about 70% of global PPA, and the IEA projects its share of worldwide production capacity will increase to 75% by 2035, despite efforts by other countries to expand refining.
“Despite having the world’s largest phosphate rock reserves and plans to expand phosphate mining, Morocco is set to hold only 5% of global PPA production capacity by 2035,” the report states.
The United States is expected to become the third-largest producer with nearly 5% of global capacity, followed by Canada. Together, Morocco, the United States, and Canada are projected to account for more than 55% of planned PPA capacity outside China by 2035.
China maintains lead despite limited reserves
The report highlights a striking contrast between reserves and production.
While Morocco holds 70% of global phosphate rock reserves, it currently accounts for less than 15% of global mined phosphate supply.
China, however, possesses only about 5% of global phosphate reserves but produced 45% of the world’s phosphate rock in 2025, making it the leading supplier. The United States ranked third with nearly 10% of global production, according to the IEA.
According to the report, producers face hurdles including cost competitiveness driven by economies of scale, limited technical expertise, equipment availability, and challenges associated with waste and by-product management.
Chinese investment strengthens Morocco’s battery ambitions
Despite its relatively modest projected share of global PPA capacity, Morocco continues to attract major investments linked to the global electric vehicle supply chain.
The IEA noted that companies including Gotion, BTR, Huayou, and CNGR have announced major battery-related projects in Morocco in recent years, with the country’s extensive phosphate reserves serving as a key attraction.
The report also said Morocco’s trade agreements with the European Union and its free trade agreement with the United States provide Chinese-backed projects based in the country with preferential access to European and American markets compared with direct exports from China.
The agency also pointed to Morocco’s growing role in other battery materials. It cited the planned Tangier anode plant, which, together with projects in Sweden and Canada, is expected to produce around 20,000 tonnes of battery-grade coated spherical graphite annually by 2030.
In addition, the IEA noted that Managem announced plans in early 2026 to convert cobalt metal production at its Bou Azzer operation into cobalt sulphate, with an estimated production capacity of 6,000 tonnes per year, including 1,200 tonnes of contained cobalt.
Rising sulfur costs add pressure
The report warns that geopolitical tensions are increasing costs across the battery supply chain.
Following disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in early 2026, global sulfur prices surged, causing sulfuric acid prices to nearly double from $144 per tonne in February to $283 per tonne in April.
Because sulfuric acid is a key input for purified phosphoric acid production, the higher prices have pushed phosphoric acid costs upward.
The IEA said phosphoric acid prices increased by nearly 4% during the first quarter of 2026, exceeding $1,500 per tonne, while battery-grade PPA continues to trade at a premium.
The agency added that higher phosphate rock prices, driven by supply disruptions and export policy changes in producing countries, are also contributing to rising battery material costs.
