Rabat – Morocco’s economy is on course to grow by 4.5% in 2026, before growth eases to 4.2% in 2027, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October World Economic Outlook.
Yet behind these positive projections lies the persistent challenge of ensuring that economic growth translates into jobs and better living conditions for Moroccan households.
The IMF expects Morocco to maintain a solid growth rate despite geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over global trade, and fluctuations in energy prices. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an estimated 4% in 2025, according to the report.
Its outlook suggests that the country can sustain its economic momentum over the next two years. However, GDP growth alone offers an incomplete picture of economic progress, particularly in a country where access to employment remains a major concern for young people.
The central question is whether the economy can create enough stable, productive jobs to ensure that growth benefits a wider share of the population.
Unemployment may fall, but young people remain at a disadvantage
The IMF expects Morocco’s unemployment rate to decline from 13% in 2025 to 12.2% in 2026 and 11.3% in 2027.
This projected improvement offers some relief, but the figures also point to the scale of the challenge. Even if unemployment falls as expected, a substantial share of the workforce could still struggle to find a job.
Data from the IMF’s March 2026 assessment of Morocco reveal particularly difficult conditions for young people. The unemployment rate among those aged 15 to 24 reached 37.3% in 2025, while 25.2% of young people had no job and were not in education or training during the third quarter of that year.
Long-term unemployment presents another concern. In 2025, 64.8% of unemployed people had spent at least 12 months without work, according to the same assessment.
These figures suggest that the problem goes beyond the availability of vacancies. For many jobseekers, the challenge is to secure their first job, find work that matches their qualifications, or return to employment after a prolonged period without income.
Morocco’s agricultural sector has also lost jobs amid successive droughts and productivity gains. These losses exceeded the employment gains recorded in industry, construction, and services, according to the IMF.
The fund has also pointed to limited private-sector dynamism, difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to obtain financing, gaps between workers’ skills and employers’ needs, and barriers to women’s employment.
Together, these factors help explain why economic growth does not automatically produce enough jobs to address the country’s labor-market difficulties.
Low inflation does not necessarily mean lower living costs
The IMF expects Morocco’s average inflation rate to reach 0.9% in 2026, up from 0.8% in 2025, before rising to 1.4% in 2027.
The forecasts point to relatively stable prices over the next two years, with no immediate return to the sharp inflationary pressures that affected many economies in recent years.
However, low inflation does not mean that prices will fall. It means that prices should rise more slowly. For households, the distinction matters: even modest price increases can strain budgets when wages fail to keep pace with the cost of essential goods and services.
Morocco’s exposure to external shocks also leaves the outlook vulnerable to changes in international markets. In its March 2026 assessment, the IMF warned that the conflict in the Middle East could affect the country through higher commodity prices and weaker global demand.
A prolonged increase in energy prices could raise Morocco’s import bill and place renewed pressure on domestic prices. Such a shock would complicate efforts to protect household purchasing power, even if the overall inflation rate remained relatively low.
The real test for households will therefore depend not only on inflation, but also on wages, job security, and access to stable employment.
Infrastructure investment needs stronger job creation
Morocco has made infrastructure investment a key part of its economic development strategy. The IMF sees such investment as a potential driver of growth, but its wider economic benefits will depend on whether businesses can expand and create jobs alongside major public projects.
The fund has stressed the importance of private-sector participation, higher productivity, and labor-market reforms. Without these conditions, the economic returns from public investment could fall short of expectations, limiting its contribution to employment and broader prosperity.
A stronger private sector could help turn investment into opportunities beyond the construction phase, while better alignment between education and labor-market needs could improve young people’s prospects.
The IMF’s projections also reflect the uncertainty that surrounds the wider region. For the Middle East and Central Asia, the fund expects economic activity to contract by 0.3% in 2026 before rebounding by 6.3% in 2027.
Morocco’s projected growth remains positive, but the headline figures tell only part of the story. A lower unemployment rate and moderate inflation would offer limited reassurance to households if secure jobs remain difficult to find or if incomes fail to keep pace with living costs.
Over the next two years, Morocco’s economic performance will depend not only on how much its economy grows, but also on whether that growth creates lasting employment and delivers tangible improvements in people’s daily lives.
