Rabat – A poll by Politico said 58% of respondents in Spain believe tensions over occupied Ceuta and Melilla could trigger a war between Morocco and Spain.
Independent pollster PF Global conducted the poll weeks before Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez dissolved the government to call for new elections triggered by an internal crisis, as well as the mass crossings into occupied Ceuta in July.
Politico published the poll findings on October 13. The survey took place between September 13 and 15, surveying 2,066 people in Spain.
Tens of thousands of migrants entered the occupied city in one of the largest irregular migration events in Morocco’s border history. The crisis sparked heightened tensions, especially amid far-right claims targeting Rabat and Spain’s provocative messages and acts, including the recent visit by King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia to the two occupied cities.
In their visit, the Spanish monarchs opted to send their provocative message about what they alleged as territorial integrity and sovereignty over the territories, despite El País sources which acknowledged the trip would not be possible without Morocco’s approval.
Moroccan political parties as well as citizens have also urged Morocco to relaunch negotiations to reclaim Ceuta and Melilla in response to continuous provocative acts from Moncloa and its far-right.
Politico’s poll shows that the situation, marred by a heightened crisis over Ceuta and Melilla, was likely to trigger an “armed conflict between Spain and Morocco within the next decade.”
The predictions are more prevalent among supporters of the far-right Vox and center-right People’s Party (PP).
Both parties have been vocal in disseminating their smear campaigns targeting Rabat. Both parties also alleged that Rabat triggered the migration crisis to allegedly blackmail Spain or as a use of “hybrid war.”
89.77% of respondents also said they’d vote for Vox in the next elections, while 85.3% claimed they would vote for the PP in the next election.
Those who said they would vote for the Socialist Party in the next election are estimated at 64.3% of respondents.
“People who said they’d cast their votes for Feijóo or the far-right Vox party in the next election were both more likely to consider Morocco a threat to Spain, and more likely to think that tensions over the exclaves could lead to an armed conflict this decade,” Politico said.
The same sentiment is shared among supporters of Sánchez’s party, with nearly two-thirds considering Morocco a genuine threat.
The poll and sentiment regarding Morocco as a threat to Spain are not an isolated case.
Last year, another poll, beyond the Ceuta crisis, reflected how 55% of Spanish people view Morocco as a main external threat to their country.
Spain’s Elcano Royal Institute poll last year included responses from 1,000 participants, with many Spaniards seeing Morocco as a greater threat than Russia.
Russia comes next with 33% of votes and the US with 19%.
Frustration among the media and Spaniards is also heightened by a new social media campaign encouraging members of the Moroccan diaspora to support Sánchez’s party in the upcoming general elections, which drew Spanish media attention, recalling Morocco’s community as Spain’s largest foreign-nationality population.
