Maghreb: Trump’s Isolationism will Benefit Morocco

Washington DC — It is true that regardless of personal views on President Trump and the debate over the amount of influence and say his cabinet members may have over decisions regarding the US foreign policy, no one can predict or define the trends of the new American administration’s strategy in North Africa.

In fact, some observers argue that only future events will determine which way a Trump administration would go. Nevertheless, there are some indications that the new U.S. Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, will take a hands-off approach to managing the crises in the region, thus letting Europe take the lead.

By all accounts, Mr. Tillerson has been well received in Foggy Bottom. The new American top diplomat’s mild demeanor and his humble approach are winning the goodwill of the long time civil servants who may oppose President Trump new foreign policy.

Nevertheless, he has walked into an unpredictable and unsettling situation with several diplomatic crises erupting around the globe that need his immediate attention. Thus, the Maghreb and the Western Sahara conflict are likely to be relegated to the “not important or crucial” items list.

Furthermore, Mr. Tillerson’s cautious approach in his initial reluctance to make drastic changes to America’s policies on “non-important” diplomatic affairs is an indication that the U.S. will likely adopt a position to keep the status-quo in the Western Sahara, as long as the region stays out of the “breaking news” cycle. In fact, if the Maghreb stays “calm”, Algeria and Morocco will feel Trump’s American isolationism.

At the United Nations, the new U.S. Ambassador’s statement that “For those who don’t have our backs, we’re taking names” spells good news for Morocco. This new attitude is a far cry from the Obama’s envoys more demagogue positions. Rabat that has always been in sync with most of the U.S. positions at the U.N. may find a friend in Ambassador Haley, while Algeria ends up on the ‘list” alongside its allies Venezuela and Iran that tend to vote against the Americans.

But given the recent diplomatic snags facing this new Administration and President Trump’s “America First” policy, the Secretary will likely “categorize” the dossiers sitting on his desks and chooses the ones that he wants to manage. With Russia, Iran and Immigration on the top of that list, the Maghreb is probably not on his radar. This new reality will open the door for Europe to take the lead in managing conflicts and tensions in this region of the world.

Early reports focusing on Mr. Tillerson’s possible “predispositions” toward Algeria due to his oil and gas interests turned out to be untrue. The new Secretary has made it clear that “seriousness and stability” will be the corner stones of his agency. In fact, analyst predictions that State under his leadership will closely coordinate with the Department of Defense and the CIA are all good news for Morocco that tend to have much better relations with these agencies than with the career diplomats.

Moreover, the volatility of the political and security situations in Algeria will negatively influence Mr. Tillerson’s views on the future of the North African nation’s relations with the United States. The former Exxon CEO who values stability and dislikes unpredictability will likely appreciate Morocco’s stable and more secure footing in the region; thus making the Kingdom a natural ally. For the new American administration, the absence of a clear path to reforms in Algeria creates ambiguity and suspicion, which often leads to political collapse.

The fact that America is yielding political leadership in regions of the world that President Trump deems irrelevant will benefit Europe in the case of the Maghreb. With Spain marred in a political quandary and England busy with Brexit, France will emerge as the biggest winner in this situation.

This is good news for Morocco that has close relations with Paris. Furthermore ,the Moroccan Monarch’s ongoing advances in Africa and his return to the African Union will position his country to take the lead in the continent.

With America in a willing retreat and France eager to give King Mohammed VI a chief role in the region, Morocco will become the central player in North and West Africa as well as the Sahel region. With its newly formed Dakar-Addis Ababa-Kigali alliance and its strong relations with Nigeria, Rabat is well positioned to take the lead in Africa.