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London – Aid groups have dubbed the current Tigray famine the “worst food crisis in a decade.” The United Nations forecasts that the crisis is only set to worsen in the embattled region of northern Ethiopia.
UN humanitarian chief Mark Lowcock has driven this point home at a roundtable discussion, confirming that “there is famine now in Tigray.”
He added that “this is going to get a lot worse,” noting that such a shocking number of people in famine conditions has not been seen since the 2011 famine in Somalia which led to the deaths of an estimated 250,000 people.
The UN-backed Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, which Lowcock drew upon, is a system used by humanitarian aid agencies and governments to determine the scale of a hunger crisis. It places food insecurity on a five-phase scale, in which phase 5 is a catastrophe.
The report estimated that 353,000 people in Tigray were in phase 5, with a further 1.769 million in phase 4.
There is growing international concern about the extreme food shortages in Tigray, as conflict in the region exacerbates the severity of the situation.. Ongoing violence in Northern Ethiopia, between government troops and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), stands a chance of impeding aid access for thousands.
Conflict in Tigray: A Sinister Backdrop to Famine
There is no doubt that the catastrophic famine playing out in Tigray is symptomatic of ongoing regional conflict.
The Ethiopian government ordered a military offensive against forces in Tigray on November 4 2020, which resulted in a violent political crisis.
This order followed months of altercations between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and leaders of the TPLF.
Abiy is the face of a government reshuffle which saw the TPLF ousted from political power in the country for the first time since 1991. Abiy’s “Prosperity Party” sought to centralize the ethnicity-based federal system of government set up by the Tigray administration.
In his role, Abiy is praised for liberalising politics, overthrowing corrupt government leaders, and solving the territorial disputes with neighbouring Eritrea, an achievement that earned him a Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.
However, growing tensions led to the central government suspending funding for Tigray officials in October 2020, ultimately triggering the descent into violence. Eritrean troops have also entered the conflict in support of the Ethiopian central government.
With both groups solely focusing on the “illegitimacy” of the other, the acute human cost of the conflict doesn’t appear to be under the radar of the government’s attention.
The escalation of violence has killed thousands of civilians and forced more than 2 million from their homes since the beginning of hostilities in November.
BBC reports have noted that the most fertile parts of Tigray were occupied by military forces, disrupting agriculture. Adding to the chaos, Eritrean forces have allegedly been pillaging food aid supplies intended for civilians.
The IPC report echoes concerns stating that, “This severe crisis results from the cascading effects of conflict, including population displacements, movement restrictions, limited humanitarian access, loss of harvest and livelihood assets, and dysfunctional or non-existent markets.”
The Ethiopian government has disputed the IPC analysis. There is political stigma attached to the word ‘famine’ and those in power will do their best to steer discourse away from this disturbing label, despite the obvious human toll of the situation. The Ethiopian government insists that the humanitarian crisis is under control.
Humanitarian Aid Necessitated by the Situation
Humanitarian agencies have been slow to respond to the situation as barriers instituted by the Ethiopian military have been continuously impeding access.
As of June 10, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), and UNICEF have issued a joint call for urgent action to address food insecurity in northern Ethiopia.
“The brutal reality for our staff in Tigray is that for every family we reach with life-saving food, there are countless more, especially in rural areas, whom we cannot reach,” said WFP Executive Director, David Beasley.
Many humanitarian leaders are calling for an urgent famine prevention ceasefire. Efforts must be made to save as many civilian lives as possible before they succumb to the joint pressures of ensuing conflict and tragic food shortages.
