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Casablanca — Most fans following the 2026 FIFA World Cup are focused on goals, standings, and surprise results. But away from the stadiums, the tournament is also driving record activity on prediction market platforms, where users trade contracts tied to match outcomes and other events.
Kalshi, one of the largest prediction market platforms in the United States, reported $5.1 billion in notional trading volume during the opening week of the World Cup. The company also surpassed $100 billion in lifetime trading volume during the tournament, marking a new milestone as football draws more users to the sector.
Researchers at DeFi Rate estimate that more than $2.5 billion could be traded on World Cup-related prediction markets over the course of the tournament. Of that total, around $1.47 billion is expected to flow through Kalshi alone.
The numbers suggest that football fans are increasingly engaging with prediction markets, a sector that until recently was better known for contracts tied to elections, economic data, and political events.
Interestingly, most of the expected activity is not centered on predicting who will lift the trophy.
According to the estimates, individual match contracts are projected to account for roughly 80% of World Cup trading volume. Nearly $1.2 billion in trades could be linked to match-by-match markets on Kalshi, compared to about $253 million expected for the outright winner market.
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That means traders appear far more interested in reacting to daily results than waiting several weeks for a champion to be crowned.
The World Cup has also become a showcase for companies operating in the field. Earlier this year, FIFA named ADI Predictstreet as an official prediction market partner for the tournament. The agreement marked FIFA’s first partnership with a prediction market company and introduced prediction-based fan experiences connected to the competition.
The partnership comes as prediction market firms seek greater visibility through sports. Football offers access to one of the largest global audiences in the world, with billions of viewers expected to follow the tournament across television, streaming platforms, and social media.
At the same time, the growing popularity of these platforms is attracting closer attention from regulators in several countries, which continue to debate whether prediction markets should be treated as financial exchanges or a form of gambling.
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