Rabat – Food costs are expected to rise more in the future due to heat waves and global warming, with the southern hemisphere countries being the most impacted, according to a study released on Thursday by scientific publishing company Springer Nature.
Based on the author of the journal’s projections, the impact will vary depending on the season and location. However, under the best-case scenario, the projected rise in temperatures for 2035 will result in an average annual increase in food costs of 1.49 percentage points.
The worst-case scenario will see an increase of 1.79 percentage points, while the two eventualities will have corresponding effects on total inflation of 0.76 and 0.91 percentage points.
“We found strong evidence that higher temperatures, particularly in summer and in warmer regions, lead to higher food prices,” one of the study’s authors, Maximilian Kotz, said while summarizing the findings for French outlet AFP.
Kotz based his comparisons of historical data on prices and climatic conditions from 121 countries between 1996 and 2020.
The European Central Bank and the University of Potsdam in Germany conducted an extrapolation of this data using future climate conditions predicted for the years 2035 to 2060.
According to Kotz, these circumstances “will probably lead to increases in food inflation and overall inflation worldwide, particularly in regions that are already warmer (in the southern hemisphere),” highlighting that Africa and South America will be the most severely affected.
On the other hand, with the exception of electricity prices, the researchers discovered no discernible effect of global warming on other aspects of family expenditure. This, according to research, is rather “consistent” with the idea that “agriculture is particularly sensitive to climate impacts,” Kotz noted.
Additionally, the researchers examined in more detail the effects of the heat wave that hit Europe in the summer of 2022. This wave reportedly increased food inflation by 0.67 percentage points, with a larger effect in southern Europe.
“Climate change will amplify the magnitude of extreme heat events, as well as their potential impact on inflation,” the study concluded.
Read also: WMO Report Sounds Alarm On Global Climate Crisis With Unprecedented Heat Records
