Join on WhatsApp
Join on Telegram
The New Year brings new challenges and opportunities for Middle East leaders. But optimism should reign as several troublesome regional issues have shown improvement if not resolution. Elsewhere, the Middle East-North Africa (MENA) region is engaged in multilateral efforts on a broad range of issues.
Times change. Just four years ago, for example, in early 2021, daily reported deaths from the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States peaked at over 4,000. Tunisia reported nearly 4,000 daily Covid-19 infections in January 2021. The price of a barrel of oil—having collapsed in spring 2020—rebounded to about $53 in early 2021, a solid benefit for oil importing nations. Many countries scrambled to deal with the pandemic in 2020 and 2021. The pandemic played a role in the de-escalation of some regional crises: Saudi Arabia reopened its border with Qatar in 2021, ending a three-year diplomatic crisis.
In Morocco, a pandemic lockdown in 2020 gave way to a slightly improvised economic and national rebound, from the manufacture (and regional export) of masks and hospital-grade ventilators to the construction of field hospitals that protected critical medical infrastructure. Better days, indeed, lie ahead.
There’s reason to believe that three positive ongoing trends in the region will continue, creating even more momentum on economic, social and governance progress. From Dubai to Damascus, Cairo to Casablanca, the MENA region can embrace optimism as 2025 arrives.
1. Syria
The rapid collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria caught the global community by surprise. Some regional leaders were deep into the process of rehabilitating Assad in 2024, from helping reinstate Syria into the Arab League to tentative diplomatic engagement. Events on the ground in late 2024 demonstrated, though, that the Syrian leader ultimately was little more than the beleaguered mayor of Damascus for some time.
Challenges will remain as the nation recovers from a decade of total war and isolation but initial moves by the prominent rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) indicate a primary interest in rebuilding the Syrian nation rather than unrestrained retribution. Syria’s new de-facto leadership, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, has held meetings with a diverse collection of parties, from western diplomats to members of the Kurdish and Christian communities in Syria. Images of face-to-face meetings bode well for measured national reconciliation and global financial support. Beyond Syrians taking control of their own future, Syria represents an opportunity for key MENA leaders to recalibrate the concept of regional security.
2. Inflation down, cooperation up2023 and 2024 saw significant inflation around the world, including in the Middle East. But oil price stability, if not optimal price levels for exporting nations, along with cereal/grain commodity availability has put moderate downward pressure on consumer prices. Overall Middle East GDP growth is projected to be 2.2 percent in 2024, according to the World Bank. That’s not bad considering inflation and disrupted global supply chains.
For Morocco, cooperation and regional engagement is paying dividends. Wheat prices are high and will likely remain high in 2025. For Morocco, Egypt and others, importing cereals and grains from a diverse collection of nations represents an unwelcome outflow of valuable cash. But the good news is that cereal commodities should be widely available and price stable in 2025. OCP, Morocco’s phosphates/fertilizer company, and French energy firm Engie signed a series of preliminary agreements in October for desalination, renewable energy and green hydrogen projects in Morocco that may ultimately be worth $18 billion.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states are likely to end 2024 with very subdued annual economic growth (1.6 percent). There’s good and bad news: GCC petroleum-exporting economies will continue to diversify and modernize in 2025, but attracting direct foreign investment is a recurring challenge. Saudi government data show foreign direct investment (FDI) of $14.5 billion for the first nine months of 2024. Respectable but just halfway to the government’s 2024 total target of $29 billion. Beyond oil, the diplomatic prowess of the GCC is demonstrated in the repeated hostage release deals that have been brokered by GCC members over the past few years.
In January 2021, a new continent-wide free trade area began in Africa: the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The global coronavirus pandemic slowed the rollout of the ambitious project that connects 1.3 billion people across 55 countries (nearly all continental nations have become members) in a $3.4 trillion economic zone. Africa’s economic growth is expected to remain strong in 2025, creating numerous investment opportunities for traditional investors on the continent like Egypt, Morocco and the UAE.
Sports
Yes, sports are an important part of public and economic life in the MENA region. The past four years have given the MENA region cause for great enthusiasm for the beautiful game, from Saudi Arabia’sAl Nassr squad landing Christiano Ronaldo to Morocco’s bravura performance at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. Soccer has genuinely deepened the ties between MENA nations and the four corners of the globe.
Global soccer stars with roots in the MENA region are now household names in Europe. Achraf Hakimi (Paris Saint-Germain and the Morocco national team) and Mohamed Salah (Liverpool and Egypt national team) are perhaps the best known but young stars are on the rise, too.Lamine Yamal, born to a Moroccan father and an Equatorial Guinean mother, is a 17-year-old prodigy. Spain’s 2–1 victory against England in the Euro 2024 final made Yamal, then 16, the youngest player ever to win the Euros.
The MENA region will find itself hosting the world’s best soccer players, again and again. Along with Spain and Portugal, Morocco will co-host the 2030 FIFA World Cup. The 2034 World Cup would be hosted by Saudi Arabia. Morocco and Saudi Arabia will both embark on ambitious infrastructure projects for the World Cup. Optimally, the infrastructure-building efforts represent an opportunity to broaden the concept of sustainable regional development.
MENA engagement in international golf became notable in 2024. LIV Golf, the new Saudi-funded international golf tournament circuit, has created upheaval (and excitement) in the golf tournament world. Both LIV Golf and PGA leadership have engaged in tentative collaboration talks this year. No matter the outcome, international golf will likely never be the same.
Welcome 2025!
