Agadir – Morocco’s economy is projected to grow by 5% in 2026, up from an estimated 4.6% in 2025, driven by a strong agricultural rebound and sustained investment in major infrastructure projects, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said in its its latest Economic Outlook released today.
“GDP growth is projected to reach 5.0% in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027, after rising to 4.6% in 2025,” the report said, highlighting Morocco’s resilience despite growing uncertainty in the global economy.
According to the report, growth in 2025 was supported by private consumption and investment, benefiting from lower inflation, stronger consumer confidence, and major public infrastructure programs.
Agriculture and infrastructure drive growth prospects
The report forecasts a particularly strong recovery in agriculture after several years marked by drought conditions. Heavy winter rainfall has replenished reservoirs across the country, supporting what the OECD estimates will be a 15% rebound in agricultural production during 2026 before conditions normalize the following year.
At the same time, infrastructure spending is expected to continue boosting manufacturing and construction activity.
“Infrastructure investment will continue to support growth in manufacturing and construction,” the report noted.
Energy dependence remains key risk
Despite the positive outlook, the OECD warned that Morocco remains vulnerable to fluctuations in international energy markets due to its dependence on imported energy.
Approximately 90% of Morocco’s energy needs are imported, making the country exposed to rising global prices and geopolitical tensions. The recent energy price shock is expected to temporarily increase both inflation and the current account deficit in 2026.
Inflation, which averaged just 0.7% in 2025, is projected to rise to 3.2% in 2026 before easing again to 1.4% in 2027.
“Consumption growth is expected to moderate somewhat because of higher inflation but remain solid,” the OECD said.
The report also pointed to Morocco’s exposure to developments in the Middle East. While disruptions to fertilizer exports from competing producers could create short-term opportunities for Morocco’s phosphate industry, a prolonged regional conflict could negatively affect the country’s economy.
“A prolonged conflict could also disrupt supplies for domestic fertilizer production because Morocco depends on imports of ammonia and sulfur from Gulf economies,” the report warned.
The OECD nevertheless emphasized that Morocco benefits from a diversified economic base and strong phosphate exports. Phosphate fertilizers accounted for 21% of the country’s export revenues in 2025, helping offset some of the impact of higher energy import costs.
Exports are expected to continue improving over the next two years, supported by stronger external demand and the country’s industrial expansion. However, the current account deficit is forecast to widen to 3.1% of GDP in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027 due to rising import prices.
The labor market is also expected to improve gradually. After declining from 13.4% in 2024 to 13% in 2025, unemployment is projected to fall by a further 0.3 percentage points in 2026.
However, the OECD stressed that joblessness remains particularly high among young people and women, reaching 37.2% and 20.5%, respectively.
Bank Al-Maghrib expected to hold key rate at 2.25%
On monetary policy, the report expects Bank Al-Maghrib to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% throughout 2026 and 2027, ending the easing cycle that began in previous years.
“The central bank has kept its key policy rate unchanged at 2.25% since March 2025. Given the expected temporary rise in inflation caused by the energy shock, no further rate cuts are anticipated in 2026–2027,” the OECD said.
Meanwhile, public finances are expected to continue improving. The budget deficit, which fell from 3.9% of GDP in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025, is projected to stabilize at around 3% of GDP in both 2026 and 2027.
The OECD attributed the improvement to higher government revenues generated by economic growth and recent tax reforms that are broadening the tax base and strengthening tax collection.
OECD calls for structural reforms
Looking ahead, the organization urged Morocco to accelerate structural reforms aimed at strengthening long-term and inclusive growth.
“Reducing informality and strengthening human capital and productivity remain key priorities for Morocco,” the report said.
The OECD recommended expanding access to childcare services, strengthening workplace-based vocational training, improving labor market flexibility, and increasing incentives for businesses and workers to join the formal economy.
The report also called for stronger competition policies, continued efforts to combat corruption, particularly in public procurement, and faster progress in the country’s energy transition.
“Reducing dependence on imported energy would improve resilience to climate shocks and enhance energy security,” it concluded.
