Agadir – The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts Morocco’s economy to grow by 4.8% in 2026, driven by a strong recovery in agricultural output following several years of drought.
According to its September Regional Economic Prospects report, titled Running Dry, the EBRD expects growth to moderate to 3.9% in 2027. The updated outlook places Morocco among the stronger-performing economies in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean (SEMED) region.
The bank said the improved outlook reflects a significant recovery in agricultural production during the first half of 2026. The rebound helped offset weaker activity in industry and construction, supporting overall economic growth.
Agriculture leads growth
The agricultural recovery marks an important shift for Morocco after several years of drought weighed on production and rural activity.
The EBRD identified stronger agricultural output as a key driver of the country’s improved growth outlook, even as activity in parts of the industrial and construction sectors remained weaker.
Morocco’s High Commission for Planning (HCP) also reported that agricultural value added increased by 18.4% in the first quarter and estimated a 20.5% expansion in the second quarter, supported by favorable rainfall during the winter season.
The recovery in agriculture has contributed to a broader improvement in economic activity. The HCP estimated that Morocco’s economy grew by an average of 4.7% during the first half of 2026, with services continuing to support growth alongside agriculture.
Tourism supports growth
The EBRD also pointed to tourism receipts and remittances from Moroccans living abroad as continued sources of support for Morocco’s external balances.
These inflows have helped cushion the impact of a wider trade deficit and supported the country’s external balances. The EBRD also noted that inflation has remained very low despite higher energy prices across the region.
The bank expects Morocco to maintain its relatively strong growth within the SEMED region over the forecast period, supported by the recovery in agriculture as well as continued tourism revenues and remittance inflows.
