Rabat – Morocco’s pharmaceutical trade deficit is set to widen in the coming years as rising imports continue to outpace exports, according to a new analysis published by BMI, a Fitch Solutions company.
Morocco’s pharmaceutical exports remained broadly unchanged in 2025, reaching MAD 1.6 billion ($171 million). Exports increased 1.2% year-on-year in local currency terms and 8% in US dollar terms.
Imports grew much faster. They rose 17.4% year-on-year in local currency terms and 24.9% in US dollar terms to MAD 11.9 billion ($1.27 billion). The figure exceeded BMI’s previous forecast of MAD 10.8 billion ($1.16 billion).
The stronger import growth pushed the pharmaceutical trade deficit from the previously forecast MAD 9.2 billion ($984 million) to MAD 10.3 billion ($1.1 billion).
BMI now expects pharmaceutical imports to continue growing faster than exports, taking the trade deficit to MAD 13.4 billion ($1.4 billion) by 2030.
The research firm also revised its pharmaceutical market forecast. It expects sales to increase from MAD 35.8 billion ($3.82 billion) in 2025 to MAD 38.6 billion ($4.20 billion) in 2026, representing growth of 7.8% in local currency terms and 9.8% in US dollar terms.
By 2030, pharmaceutical sales could reach MAD 46.3 billion ($4.89 billion), with per capita spending and market penetration both contributing to growth. BMI expects the market to post a five-year compound annual growth rate of 5.3% in local currency terms and 5% in US dollar terms.
Reform targets Morocco’s generic drug market
Morocco is also revising its pharmaceutical regulations. On June 22, 2026, the House of Councillors adopted draft law No. 27.26, revising the Code of Medicines and Pharmacy.
The law expands the responsibilities of the Moroccan Agency for Medicines and Health Products in authorization, control, inspection, and pharmacovigilance. The changes support Morocco’s bid for WHO regulatory maturity level 3, which reflects a stable regulatory system capable of authorizing medical products and monitoring their safety.
The legislation also strengthens manufacturers’ responsibility for monitoring drug safety after products reach the market.
A revision of the 2015 decree governing marketing authorizations could also change the timing of generic drug entry. Under Article 4, companies can extend commercial protection beyond patent expiry by filing for Moroccan authorization close to the patent’s expiration, triggering a new five-year data exclusivity period.
BMI cited Ozempic, or semaglutide, as an example. The drug’s Moroccan registration filing came in 2025, one year before its 2026 patent expiry, delaying generic competition by an estimated four years.
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BMI said marketing authorization currently takes an average of three years, compared with a regulatory target of nine to 12 months. It expects Morocco’s generic drug sector to reach MAD 20.7 billion ($2.2 billion) by 2030, with a five-year CAGR of 6.3% in local currency terms and 6% in US dollar terms.
Morocco also cut customs duties on 112 essential medicines from 30% to 2.5% under the 2026 Finance Bill adopted by the House of Representatives on December 5, 2025. The government made the move after shortages affected more than 600 medicines during 2025.
The healthcare budget increased 30% in 2026 to MAD 42.3 billion ($4.5 billion). At the same time, Morocco raised tariffs on 34 pharmaceuticals to protect domestic manufacturers.
BMI’s Country Risk team forecasts real GDP growth of 4.2% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, supported by fixed investment and private consumption. Falling unemployment and subdued inflation are also expected to support government healthcare spending and pharmaceutical imports.
