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The Context
Like most nations in the world, The United States is a society divided along many lines. These divisions are not just across economic, social, ethnic, or religious demarcations; they are, especially, acute along political affiliations. Such affiliations-or lack, thereof- determines who is elected president of the United States. The artful Politician who is best able to carefully dance between these constituent parts is usually the winner.
The Yellow Dogs Democrats
A cursory examination of the American electorate reveals that slightly less than a third are registered democrats. No matter what, a substantial majority of this group consistently votes along party line. They are often labeled “Yellow Dogs Democrats.”
Meaning-and this is metaphorical, of course- that in any election, even if the party’s nominee is a yellow dog, they’ll still support the dog- as long as it is a democrat.
The Die-hard Republicans
Just like their counterparts on the democratic side, a portion of the American people always votes Republican, regardless of the standard bearer. These die-hard Republicans, faithfully and repeatedly, choose party first. That leaves the remaining forty-five percent of the electorate- the so-called middle voters. This large group is not affiliated with any political party.
The Unaffiliated
Presidential hopefuls know-and history bears this out- that the unaffiliated, or independents, are the most influential voters in general elections. Their decision is based on issues and candidates rather than ideology. These men and women are heterogeneous and represent every segment of the American people; they’re flexible, sensible, and not driven by dogma. Unlike the Yellow Dogs Democrats, or the Die-hard Republicans, this Great Middle has no party loyalty. In all previous elections, the formula for potential presidential winners is to secure their respective base first, but without alienating the all-important unaffiliated block.
The Mathematics of Presidential Elections
The mathematic is simple: In the United States, it is virtually impossible to be elected by the yellow dogs or the die-hard alone. There are just not enough of them. That is why presidential nominees of both parties must pivot to the Great Middle, to the unaffiliated voters. Traditionally, it is this crucial constituency that actually decides who is elected president of the United States.
In the current equation of American electoral politics, Donald Trump stands for a loud and vocal minority. This faction makes the sort of constant background noise the media loves, amplifies, and lives for. The reality, however, is that throughout America’s history, successful candidates must carefully calibrate their rhetoric so as not to make it impossible for them to attract the unaffiliated voters.
For well-documented reasons, Donald Trump has crossed the Rubicon of political decency; he is too close to the abyss to ever credibly walk toward the necessary political center, where elections are won or lost. It follows, therefore, that it is very unlikely for him to become the next president of the United States.
