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Rabat – Bilateral tensions between Morocco and Algeria have been making headlines around the world, yet the dispute is intrinsically more unilateral than it appears at first glance. A series of diplomatic moves by Algiers have created the appearance of increased tensions, however a variety of factors in an ever-evolving context dictate the outcome of the dispute.
Over half a century since the decolonization of North Africa, Algeria and Morocco still cannot see eye-to-eye. The Western Sahara question has been at the center of lingering tensions as governments on both sides have staked their legitimacy based on the conflict’s outcome.
Meanwhile, citizens from both nations simply look for improved living conditions and economic opportunities as a sign of progress.
An ideological dispute
The dispute between Algeria and Morocco is often portrayed as being similar to the India-Pakistan conflict involving two brotherly nations that remain divided by mutual postcolonial disagreements.
In reality, the conflict more closely resembles the tensions between the two Koreas.
Algeria, like North Korea, has become increasingly isolated diplomatically over the years. Its post-independence revolutionary ideas have put it at odds with an ever-evolving global economic consensus on free trade and globalized neoliberal economics.
Meanwhile Morocco has positioned itself more like South Korea. The north African country has ever-deepening trade and military ties to the West, uses almost-exclusively US military equipment and training, and is a signatory to most international conventions on free trade.
Algeria’s post-independence ideals were originally intended to shield the country from international influence, such as having trade terms dictated by the World Trade Organization, or having its finances scrutinized by the IMF and World Bank. Yet in today’s world, it has resulted in isolation amid a more globalized society.
For Algerians, Morocco is viewed as oppressed by the royal family and its entourage. Moroccans in turn see Algeria’s government as an example of what Karl Marx dubbed “bonapartism,” where a popular revolutionary government devolves into a military-controlled form of elite authoritarianism, similar to the situation in North Korea.
While this ideological dispute is likely impossible to resolve, it is evident that Morocco’s form of government is supported by a broader swath of its citizenry than the unpopular Algerian elite, which has faced repeated large-scale protests over the past years.
The Western Sahara impasse
For Morocco, the Sahara dispute revolves around restoring its pre-colonial borders, while Algeria claims Morocco’s presence in the region is a form of colonialism itself. The issue has divided the world, yet in recent years a growing international consensus has emerged that Morocco’s plan for regional autonomy presents the only feasible compromise.
That growing consensus presents a direct challenge to Algiers, which has presented the conflict as an independence struggle, despite the clear lack of independence between Algeria’s elite and the “freedom fighters” in question. Few experts dispute that without Algeria’s financial and military support, the militias claiming to represent the local population would not exist today.
Decades of military training, support, and direct collaboration with Algiers has made the Polisario Front anything but independent. Were they to reach their unattainable goal, they would be directly beholden to Algeria, just as the separtist group is now.
The conflict is unlikely to be resolved on the ground, as Polisario forces are vastly inferior to the Moroccan military presence in the region, while the militia itself cannot be defeated by military means, as it can always retreat across the Algerian border and prolong the conflict.
This situation mirrors that of the Taliban in post-2001 Afghanistan, where its weaker militias could at any time retreat into Pakistan, making it impossible to be defeated militarily.
Diplomatically, the issue also faces an impasse.
Morocco feels that it has presented a true compromise in the form of its 2007 autonomy plan that grants unprecedented autonomy to the region, in a way that fulfills all expressed aspirations of locals to return to their traditional lifestyles. Yet, for Polisario, only a full Moroccan withdrawal would serve as a precondition to even start peace negotiations.
Internal pressures
The dispute between Morocco and Algeria is mostly one of internal pressures.
In Morocco, schools have taught for decades that the Western Sahara region is an integral part of its historic and current borders. Anyone using the term “Western Sahara” is seen as suspicious by millions of Moroccans who describe the region as either the “Moroccan Sahara” or the “southern provinces.”
For Algeria’s leadership, the Western Sahara question is equally part of its claim to legitimacy.
Despite ostensibly being at peace for decades, Algeria’s military budgets increase annually with no regard to the country’s economic condition. Justifying this military expenditure, and the continued political meddling by the military, amid domestic economic hardships has often revolved around pointing to the Sahara and presenting Morocco as a foreign threat.
Moreover, Algeria’s elite has increasingly relied on Morocco as a “boogeyman” of sorts as Algerian living conditions are declining along with the country’s diminishing revenues from hydrocarbon sales.
Over the past decades, Algiers has had a ready supply of cash to distribute to the population in the forms of subsidies, grants, tax-cuts and social services to placate a restless population. Yet over the past years, this income has diminished, alongside lower levels of gas production. This has left the country’s ruling elite in a predicament as to how to appease its restless population.
The answer for the country’s leadership, it appears, has come in taking an increasingly hostile stance against Morocco, in order to rally Algerians around the flag, and unite the population against a common foreign foe. This strategy closely resembles that of North Korea, which structurally ratchets up tensions with its Southern neighbor whenever domestic tension arises.
This strategy, dubbed “diversionary foreign policy,” has been used for centuries, and is central to understanding the dispute between the two strongest Maghrebi states.
External dialogue
Many states and international institutions have called for mediation following the rapid devolution of the remaining diplomatic ties between Algiers and Rabat. From Saudi Arabia to the EU, several parties have volunteered to mediate, although Algiers seems unwilling to even commence discussions to find a resolution.
This stance seems illogical from the international perspective. From a neutral perspective, it seems inconceivable not to work towards resolving decades of tensions and creating a stronger, more economically integrated Maghreb. Morocco itself has made repeated overtures to Algeria to try to find a middle ground on which to start a dialogue.
Yet for Algiers, it appears that diminishing tensions present a threat to the legitimacy of its ruling elite, which is so ill-defined that Algerians just refer to it as “the power.”
Resolving lingering bilateral tensions would reduce the need for the Algerian army’s central role in governing the country, and threatens the power of many of its ruling class.
Furthermore, without a foreign threat, an Algeria at peace would have the time and space for introspection, for a critical look at some of the country’s current crises and the cause of these issues. Algeria’s ruling class, mired in accusations of corruption and shadowy power games can ill afford such introspection and much prefers an economically disastrous diplomatic impasse with Morocco.
Just as with the Koreas, mediation shows little promise as long as at least one of the two parties involved depends on the conflict to continue for its own political survival. And similar to the Koreas, unilateral escalation from one side, reciprocated by the other or not, should not be seen as a true increase in “tensions” between the two countries.
Gas prices as a recipe for peace
The disagreement between Algeria and Morocco is therefore unlikely to be resolved either by international mediation, bilateral dialogue, or domestic policy-making. Still, there is hope of diffusing tensions, which depend on broader international trends for its success.
Strangely enough, one of the most promising international trends that could lead to lower bilateral tension is the growing global energy crunch. The world is currently facing a growing shortage in energy supply which is sending gas, oil and coal prices soaring. Gas in particular is in high demand as Europe faces a cold winter with currently insufficient gas reserves.
If Algeria’s government spots this opportunity and rapidly increases domestic gas production, it could soon see its finances improve, especially in terms of its sizable yet depleting foreign currency reserves. With more financial resources at hand, Algeria’s government can repeat its strategy of providing subsidies, grants and tax cuts to appease its disgruntled population.
The strategic use of increased hydrocarbon revenues can help raise Algerian living conditions, increase economic opportunities for Algerian youth and be used to diversify the economy away from its reliance on oil and gas sales.
With reduced domestic pressure on the government, Algiers could lower its artificial tension with Morocco, with the additional economic benefits that come from increased bilateral trade.
This could create a virtuous cycle where increased cooperation leads to better living conditions and less pressure on the presidential palace in Algiers. Without the need for a foreign boogeyman, there is no practical need for Algeria to continue raising bilateral tensions.
Growing international consensus
There are other international trends that could have a significant impact on both countries’ relations. One of which is the diplomatic momentum of Morocco’s Western Sahara diplomacy. More and more countries are recognizing Morocco’s plan as the only feasible true compromise, where all parties give and take to find a resolution.
The recent European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruling on the EU’s trade agreements regarding products from Western Sahara could spur renewed momentum. If the EU and Morocco’s joint appeal fails, a diplomatic race to recognize the region as part of Morocco is likely to start.
Countries who recognize the Western Sahara as part of Morocco’s territory could sign economically advantageous agreements, while those who linger would not have access to the region’s resources and strategic location as a growing trade hub connecting West Africa with both Western and Eastern markets.
The UK is a prime candidate for initiating such a race. Not bound by the ECJ ruling, it could complement its fishing stocks lost during Brexit negotiations while gaining an ideological “victory” over the EU. Russia and China similarly have an interest in the region, particularly in trade with Morocco and fishing off its western shores.
Such a race would likely spur locally advantageous economic investment in the region, build a diplomatic consensus that further isolates Algeria’s position as well as incentivize the international community to fully endorse the Autonomy Plan as a solution that benefits both parties involved.
Only winners
If international trends converge in a favorable manner, Algeria’s government could be able to reduce domestic pressures on its elite while creating a virtuous cycle of ever-growing economic links with Morocco. Increased prosperity in both Algeria and the Western Sahara region would increase the legitimacy of the status quo and reduce the need for provocation and confrontation.
Such a virtuous cycle would see the Maghreb rise in prominence and would allow both countries to combine forces against growing mutual concerns such as instability and extremism in the Sahel and the consequences of climate change on the region.
Such momentum would reduce the region’s dependency on Europe and increase its resilience against emerging threats such as the current pandemic. Furthermore, it would bring together both countries’ plentiful and highly complementary natural resources, namely gas and phosphates.
These two crucial elements needed for fertilizer production could mean the Maghreb can independently produce much of the fertilizers the world needs for its future food security.
Mutual economic cooperation would improve living standards in both countries, and reduce the need for authoritarian tendencies such as prosecuting journalists or critics. Meanwhile, locals in the Western Sahara region would have the choice to return to their traditional nomadic lifestyles, or opt for a more modern life in one of the vibrant economic hubs in the region.
Both countries could reduce military spending while ramping up bilateral trade, enabling both countries to rapidly improve health care, pensions and social benefits to rival their northern neighbors.
As promising as a rapprochement between the two countries would be, the solution is highly dependent on international trends.
Despite the appearance of a bilateral dispute, the conflict will likely only be resolved once Algeria’s government faces less internal pressure, or sees the deep structural reform that its nation-wide Hirak protests have called for.
