Africa Vaccine Shortage Uniquely Impacts COVID-19 Deaths

Rabat – Countries around the world are experiencing an unprecedented surge of COVID-19 cses, yet only African nations are seeing the number of pandemic-related deaths increase. Data provided by the WHO shows that daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 infections have reached record heights, yet related deaths are showing a gradual decline.

While the Delta and Omicron variants are continuing to impact the public health situation in countries across the world, the impact of national vaccination campaigns appears to have one significant advantage, COVID-19 related deaths are not increasing along with the infection rate.

Earlier in the pandemic, deaths related to the virus generally moved up and down along with the amount of new daily cases, yet this trend appears to have been broken by the amount of fully vaccinated people worldwide, which is approaching 3.9 billion people. As cases continue to rise, the deadly effects of the virus appear to be on the decline.

While people around initially hoped the COVID-19 vaccines would provide complete immunity from infection, the jabs have had an altogether different impact on the pandemic.

While fully vaccinated people still run (a reduced) risk of infection, the vaccines mostly impact the severity of the virus once contracted. A recent study on the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in North Carolina, published on January 14, concluded that “vaccines maintained better effectiveness in preventing hospitalization and death than in preventing infection over time.”

This conclusion is evident in the trends seen in national epidemics across the world, where cases are up, yet related deaths are declining. This encouraging trend has one caveat however, as the 3.9 billion vaccinated people are not distributed equally across the globe.

The one WHO region where deaths have risen along with the new COVID-19 surge, is Africa, the continent with the lowest vaccination rate on earth.

Vaccination rates worldwide, green indicating high vaccination rates. Source: WHO.

Africa has so far experienced relatively minor public health impacts due to the virus, which contrasts with the economic impact of the pandemic, which has wreaked havoc on the continent.

Yet now, the effects of alarmingly low vaccination rates on the continent appear to show in the grim statistics of rising COVID-19 related deaths, which only Africa is experiencing.

The uniquely African trend serves as a reminder that the unequal distribution of vaccines worldwide has a real effect on people’s lives, and could fuel the emergence of new variants of the virus. The Omicron variant which emerged in low-vaccinated southern Africa could be considered a warning that no region is isolated.

As WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has repeatedly emphasized, “no one is safe until we are all safe.”

Now that many of the world’s countries, including Morocco, are reaching higher domestic vaccination rates, a focus on supplying low-vaccinated countries with the doses they need is necessary. Not only to reduce preventable deaths, but is likely the only way to see a real global decline in COVID-19 infections, and the only way to prevent dangerous new variants from emerging.