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Rabat – Morocco is set to feel the impact of the reemergence of fighting between two of the country’s important trade partners, Russia and Ukraine.
The eight-year old conflict in Ukraine witnessed a new low on Thursday, as Russian and Ukrainian military forces once again clashed. While the conflict is far removed from Moroccan shores, the clash between two of Rabat’s diplomatic and trade partners is likely to have far-reaching consequences for the North African country.
Context
Not since 2014 have Russian troops directly fought the Ukrainian military. After weeks of American intelligence leaks warning of a pending invasion of Ukraine, Russian troops entered Ukraine on Thursday, February 24.
Eight years and two days after the toppling of pro-Moscow Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych on February 22, 2014, Ukraine and Russia are once again fighting an active war.
In 2014, the clash between the two nations resulted in the eventual Russian annexation of Crimea, raising fears in the West that Russia intended to either partition or fully occupy Ukraine. Ukraine has long served as a buffer state, separating the West from Russia, yet domestic and international pressures have upended this uneasy balance.
Fears over a swift “full-scale” invasion and occupation of the country have not yet materialized, with the Russian offensive currently focusing primarily on border regions and military targets such as Ukrainian air bases. One key sign of apparent Russian restraint is the fact that the Russians have refrained from targeting Ukrainian telecom networks, a common first military step to gaining full control over a country.
Debates on the details of the conflict have been noticeably sparse, with Russia’s leader being portrayed as motivated by his “evil character,” while US intelligence reports on the matter are accepted with little scrutiny, bringing back memories of US claims prior to its invasion of Iraq.
Conflicting interests
It appears that Ukraine has become the unfortunate battleground where Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are clashing due to mutual fears of encroachment.
NATO has long feared Russian military action in Eastern Europe, while Russia sees the continuous expansion of the anti-Soviet alliance as a threat to its sovereignty and security.
The conflict involves significant economic interests as well. The US has long been keen to block the Nord Stream II pipeline linking Germany and Russia, fearing it would strengthen Russo-German ties, a potential threat to US power in Europe.
Hundreds of thousands of Russian troops have been stationed on Ukraine’s borders for over a year. Yet earlier this month, the US started warning of a pending Russian invasion, just as Germany was preparing to finally approve the opening of its gas pipeline with Russia.
The US had previously contemplated sanctions on Germany to stop Nord Stream II, yet found that Washington’s opposition was only increasing German support for the pipeline.
After weeks of international pressure and US intelligence claims, the sudden Russian military offensive appears to have surprised even the closest advisors of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
For Russia, the conflict is likely an effort to make limited territorial gains, which then can provide it with a stronger negotiating position in eventual peace talks. Moscow’s expressed demands so far have revolved around stopping NATO expansion near its borders, while eventual peace talks will likely see Russia focus on its vital gas pipeline with Germany as a key demand.
International relations
The international community has reacted in varying ways to first the threat, and then the emergence, of conflict in Ukraine. US allies have for weeks echoed claims made in US intelligence reports, and responded to Thursday’s incursion with bellicose language that painted the renewed clashes within the eight-year old Russo-Ukrainian conflict as a unique and unprecedented threat to European security.
For Morocco, the conflict represents both a diplomatic and economic conundrum. Moroccan diplomats have for years worked to build positive diplomatic and trade relations with both Ukraine and Russia. Russo-Moroccan relations have seen significant positive momentum that has caused concern in Algiers, where Russia is seen as an important ally and military supplier.
Yet, Morocco is also a major Non-NATO ally, a strong supporter of states’ territorial integrity within international fora, and a trade partner of Ukraine. In 2020 alone, Morocco imported more than $437 million worth of Ukrainian goods, while exporting $56 million to Ukraine.
While some countries, notably NATO-members, have been swift to condemn the ongoing clash and expressed their opposition to Russia, Morocco’s foreign affairs ministry has remained noticeably quiet on the matter. Morocco’s diplomats have instead focused primarily on repatriating Moroccan citizens from Ukraine, and warning of the conflict’s economic impact.
Bread and games
While the diplomatic elements of the conflict present a headache for a trading nation such as Morocco, the conflict is also set to introduce new hardships in the North African kingdom. Government Spokesperson Mustapha Baitas has warned that the conflict will impact prices of basic goods in Morocco.
A key concern for policy-makers in Rabat is Morocco’s dependency on cereal exports from both Russia and Ukraine. In 2020, Morocco imported $286 million worth of Ukrainian grain, while in the same year Morocco purchased Russian grain worth $110 million. Morocco does not just depend on the region for its much-loved bread; it also relies heavily on over a billion dollars worth of annual Russian mineral, chemical and energy exports that help fuel Morocco’s industry.
It is this reliance on products from both sides of the current conflict that is set to see Moroccans directly feel the effects of geopolitical games on their dinner table. The near ubiquitous presence of bread in the Moroccan diet is likely to drive up costs amid already surging food prices due to the ongoing supply chain crisis, devastating drought, and COVID-19 disruptions.
New international sanctions on Russia are also expected to further drive up fuel and energy prices, as one of the world’s largest oil and gas exporters will face heavy penalties. Energy prices commonly impact costs on all fronts, from transportation to manufacturing, reducing the purchasing power of people across the country.
Students
Despite the economic and diplomatic difficulties facing Morocco’s foreign policymakers, another issue revolves around the large group of young Moroccans who study in Ukraine. The Moroccan government on February 12 called on all citizens residing in Ukraine to leave the country via commercial airline routes.
Yet many students have been unable to arrange the necessary funds or documents to suddenly return to Morocco, while others have been unsure they would even be allowed into the country because they do not meet the vaccine requirements for entering Morocco.
Now, as Russian and Ukrainian forces clash on the streets of Ukraine, many students remain in the country, often forced to take shelter underground out of fear of bombardment.
Worried parents have staged a protest in Rabat to demand the government take swift action to evacuate the remaining Moroccan citizens from the conflict zone. The Moroccan foreign ministry has issued specific instructions for those trapped in Ukraine to make their way to a border crossing with the country’s EU neighbors.
North African issue
Morocco is certainly not alone in its predicament, as most North African nations depend on exports from the conflict region. Egypt and Tunisia both depend heavily on Russian and Ukrainian cereal imports, while Algeria depends on Russia for nearly 30% of its refined petroleum needs and annually imports over $153 million worth of Ukrainian grain.
The already fragile economies of Tunisia and Algeria are likely to see further blows that are set to have a particularly dire impact on vulnerable communities and families tethering on the edge of poverty.
The impact of rising bread prices is not just a mere economic issue. A close correlation exists between rising bread prices and the likelihood of popular uprisings and revolution. The link between these factors has been widely studied, from the French revolution centuries ago, up to the Syrian civil war.
Egypt and Morocco have made far-reaching efforts to ensure a stockpile of cereals to limit immediate hardships, but Tunisia, Libya and Algeria all face potential destabilization due to the economic impacts of the conflict in Ukraine.
While the ongoing fighting in Eastern Europe has been described as a unique threat to Europe, it appears that much of the conflict’s consequences will be felt in North Africa and beyond.
And although military and geopolitical considerations are likely to see a return to Russian-NATO negotiations soon, the impact of the conflict could have far-reaching impacts on an already fragile and tumultuous world.
