Western Sahara: Algeria Handed Morocco Spain’s Support on a Silver Platter

Washington D.C – With the benefit of hindsight,  it’s now clear that Algeria’s halting of the Maghreb-Europe Gas Pipeline contract, the natural gas pipeline that linked it to Spain and Portugal via  Morocco, was a strategic blunder.

 As it sought to gas-starve Morocco, the Algerian regime ended up fatally murdering all its ambitions to prevent Rabat from making a major breakthrough in its decades-long efforts to get Spain to support its territorial integrity and sovereignty.

 In this sense, Algeria’s cancellation of the Maghreb-Europe pipeline was an unprecedented and valuable gift to Morocco. For one thing, the move has reduced Spain’s dependence on Algerian natural gas, given that the gas passing through Morocco accounted for 23 percent of the gas imported from Algeria by Madrid.

The decision has also shown Spanish officials that Algeria is no longer a trustworthy and reliable country in terms of meeting the Spanish market gas needs.

Algeria’s miscalculated gamble

 Algeria’s natural gas accounted for 60 percent of Spain’s consumption at the turn of the century and ranged between 50 and 60 percent between 2014 and 2018. 

But due to the short-sightedness of Algeria’s generals, Spain’s imports of Algerian gas nosedived in recent months, falling from 45 percent in previous months to 23 percent last month. The US supplied 34.6 percent of Spain’s gas needs between January and February this year, supplanting Algeria as the European country’s first gas supplier. 

In September of last year, the US share in Spain’s gas imports was as low as 16 percent. With the surge of US LNG exports to Spain in recent months, it has compensated for the more than 23 percent of Spain’s gas imports through the now-closed Maghreb-Europe Gas Pipeline.  

 The agility with which Spain has adapted to the considerable decrease in Algerian gas exports to the Spanish market further implies that Madrid has been proactively dealing with this issue for several years now. Spain has pulled through thanks to its world-class liquefied natural gas infrastructure and its long-standing strategy to increase liquefied gas in its import share.

Over the years, Spain has built state-of-the-art infrastructure for the storage and conversion of liquefied gas. Spain is currently the most advanced European country in terms of infrastructure in natural gas storage, boasting six LNG terminals, while a country like Germany has none. Spain alone hosts the third of Europe’s LNG storage capacity.

Such a proactive approach and foresight was instrumental in helping Madrid overcome the devastating effects that the Algerian regime’s reckless decision to terminate the Europe-Maghreb pipeline would have had on the Spanish economy.

Algiers’s decision to stop the gas pipeline was intended to punish and harm Morocco’s economy. But little did the Algerian regime suspect that this miscalculated gamble could harm its own strategic interests, especially its relationship with Spain. As of this year, LNG has supplanted natural gas in Spain’s gas market, representing 70 percent of its total imports. Just a year ago, LNG represented less than 50 percent of Spain’s gas imports.

Read also: Europe Maghreb Pipeline: Spain Caught Between Algeria-Morocco Tensions

Given its advanced infrastructure in terms of natural gas storage, Madrid will gradually be able to reduce Algeria’s impact on its economy and weaken the gas card that the Algerian regime has been playing for five decades to pressure Spain and dissuade it from supporting the Moroccanness of Western Sahara.

Algeria was painfully reminded of this sober reality when, on Friday last week, Spain announced a historic shift regarding its position on Western Sahara.

In affirming, for the first time, its clear and straightforward support for Morocco’s Autonomy Plan, Madrid put an end to the sitting-on-the-fence or equidistance policy with which it had approached the Sahara question for much of the past five decades to preserve its interests.

But more than the shattering of Madrid’s long-standing equidistance policy, Spain’s newfound support for Morocco’s Western Sahara stance means Algeria has lost the gas leverage it used to have on the Spanish political elite. The timing of Wendy Sherman, US Deputy Secretary of State to Spain, Morocco, and Algeria earlier this month, and just less than weeks before Spain announced its endorsement of Morocco’s Autonomy Plan suggest that there was coordination between Rabat, Madrid, and Washington. 

As some reports have indicated, this curious coincidence suggests that Spain may have received guarantees from the US administration that it will intensify its gas supplies to the Spanish economy and eventually help the European country wean itself off Algeria’s gas. 

Spain knows that apart from the gas deal its partnership with Algeria is almost non-existent. Furthermore, Spain is fully aware that the bilateral trade balance has always been in Algeria’s favor.

By comparison, the European country has dense and multiple interests in and with Morocco, be it in terms of economic and commercial cooperation or the security and shared destiny by virtue of geographical proximity.

On the economic front, for instance, more than 1,000 Spanish companies are currently operating in Morocco. As well, Spain has become Morocco’s first economic partner with a favorable trade surplus that impacts its economy positively. 

Algeria cannot retaliate

Contrary to what is being claimed in some Spanish media and political circles, Algeria will not be able to take any punitive decision against Spain.

And anyone who thinks Algeria can still halt gas flowing to Spain has, to put it rather politely, a wrong and misguided reading of the situation. Unlike oil-related contracts that are often short-term deals, gas contracts are long-term agreements that extend for multiple years if not decades.

Hence, Algeria is bound to honor the deal it signed with Spain in 2018 on the Medgaz pipeline connecting the Algerian city of Beni Saf to the Spanish city of Almeria. The agreement is valid until 2030, meaning Algeria will not — or cannot, more precisely — halt its gas exports to Spain.

Even more critical, Algeria will not be able to review the deal’s financial terms and mold them with the current rise in gas prices.

But should the Algerian regime somehow muster the temerity of terminating its gas deal with Spain in retaliation for the country’s pro-Moroccan stance on Western Sahara, it would be in blatant violation of the regulations that govern such contracts between states.

In such a highly unlikely scenario, Algiers would also be under pressure from the European Union and the United States, which has been working painstakingly for months to reduce the EU’s dependence on Russian gas.

The Medgaz pipeline is 51 % owned by Algeria’s Sonatrach, while the Spanish company Naturgy and the American company Blackrock share the remaining 49 %. Thus, if Algeria takes any retaliatory step against Spain, it would put itself in direct confrontation with the US.

In short, with its regime’s lack of strategic vision coupled with the blind hatred of Morocco, Algeria handed Spain to Morocco on a silver platter. In seeking to “punish” Rabat, Algiers ended up unwittingly fulfilling Morocco’s long-running goal of securing Madrid’s unequivocal embrace of the Moroccan position on Western Sahara.

More important than US’ recognition

Spain’s declaration of support for Morocco’s Autonomy Plan is psychologically and symbolically more meaningful than the United States’ recognition of the Moroccanness of Western Sahara, which has become US official policy. 

With Spain having substantial political and cultural influence in Latin American countries, its newly-adopted position on the Sahara will undoubtedly affect that of many other countries in Latin America. So, the Spanish move might prove to be additional good news for Morocco given the country’s recent investments in buttressing its diplomatic outreach in Latin America.

 But an even more pertinent reason is Spain’s historical association with, and responsibility in, the Western Sahara dispute. As the former colonial power of Morocco’s southern provinces, Spain’s epochal change of its long-held position of “positive neutrality” on the dispute is undoubtedly more shocking to, and unbearable for, the Algerian regime than the US’ endorsement of Morocco.

Since the end of 1960s, Madrid and Algeria have stood against Morocco’s territorial integrity and regularly colluded to thwart the country’s efforts to reunite with its southern provinces.

As such, Algeria’s furious response to Spain’s endorsement of Morocco’s Autonomy Plan speaks of the unparalleled pain and agony of losing leverage over, and the support of, a long-time accomplice.

For Morocco, meanwhile, Madrid’s historic change of heart is a potent vindication of the increasing preeminence of the Moroccan Autonomy Plan as the best way out of the decades-long diplomatic gridlock in Western Sahara. 

 And so, that Morocco was eventually able to dismantle the Algiers-Madrid pact, which had long worked in secret to oppose Morocco’s interests, is a testament to the growing effectiveness of Moroccan diplomacy.

Samir Bennis is the co-founder of Morocco World News. You can follow him on Twitter @SamirBennis.