Casablanca – In its “Weekly Mad Insights – Currencies” report, Attijari Global Research (AGR) announced a “positive” start to Operation Marhaba at the start of the summer season, predicting a liquidity effect, a fall in nominal interest rates due to an expansion in the money supply, that is favorable to the Moroccan dirham.
According to AGR, the USD/MAD balance increased by 0.08% for the week of June 27 to July 1, to 10.0348, as a result of the international growth of the dollar.
However, given the first positive impacts of foreign exchange receipts at the start of the summer season, the AGR expects a liquidity effect that will favor the Moroccan dirham.
“The EUR/MAD parity should reach 10.79, then 10.74, before reaching 10.79 at horizons 1, 2 and 3 months against a spot rate of 10.67,” the report says.
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“In addition to the start of Operation Marhaba in June 2022, we expect significant export flows in the form of tourism revenues. We could expect an improvement in liquidity conditions in the interbank foreign exchange market,” the AGR indicates.
However, AGR analysts are keeping a close eye on the trajectory of worldwide energy prices and their influence on Morocco’s foreign exchange reserves.
Additionally, according to the report, liquidity spreads declined by 35 basis points (bps) from the previous week, falling below the -1% barrier.
Banks’ foreign exchange position has climbed this week, reaching a high of MAD -7.6 billion (-$748 million) last Tuesday. On Wednesday, however, it improved slightly to MAD -7.2 billion (-$709 million).
