After continuously being at the helm of his century, it was expected that President Erdogan of Turkey would find the going tough in the election earlier this month. At least, that’s what the opinion polls and Western media made us believe.
He did fare poorly compared to his previous outings when more than 50% of the votes was secured avoiding a second round. However, pollsters had predicted his trailing behind the rial backed by most opposition parties who, some thought, may even win outright. The prediction had raised the first real possibility of the Turkish strongman losing after decades of unrivaled dominance.
But the result was an anti-climax where Erdogan left behind the opposition candidate by 4% popular vote and just missed the 50% threshold by a whisker. Hence the proponents of Erdogan’s exit are left with the “operation was successful; but the patient is dead” bewilderment.
Erdogan’s popularity appears to have dented, but the Turkish strongman is here to stay for another 5 years. The runoff coming up on May 28 is expected to propel him once again to the saddle, riding on his existing lead, buttressed by most of the votes polled by other candidates who are no longer in the field for the playoff.
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So what is the eternal charm that he emits to his citizens? The Turkish economy is in a mess with Lira’s value reaching its nadir. Ordinary Turks are suffering due to nearly unprecedented economic hardships.
Moreover, the past months have been marked by the perceived mismanagement of the devastating earthquakes that hit vulnerable Turkish provinces earlier this year. For critics, Erdogan Turkiye’s alarming levels of corruption have resulted in the creation of sitting ducks of buildings and then the delayed/inadequate recovery measures.
The President’s unique selling point (USP) has been nationalism and religious conservatism. The country under him emerged as a major arms exporter, mainly droolworthy drones. Turkey gained the status of a global player aided ably by the leadership of Erdogan.
The NATO member perfected the art of running with hares and hunting with the hounds when the Ukraine conflict erupted. There are grains of truth, not just one, that the grain deal for export of Ukraine produce was made possible by the good offices of Ankara. Erdogan has a friend in Putin who has graciously agreed to extend the grain deal by a couple of months — another feather in the former’s much tufted cap.
That Turkey could make sermonizing Scandinavian countries like Sweden and Finland wait at the door for approval to enter NATO also was a shot in the arm for the tough guy image of Erdogan.
Turkey also could make (often) decisive intervention in the regional conflicts like Syria.
Deft management of “optics” is another aspect helping Erdogan’s profile. His campaign for this election featured the announcement of two new war machines: Turkey’s first-ever drone aircraft carrier, the TCG Anadolu, and its new “national combat aircraft,” the Kaan.
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Both were launched at public ceremonies with huge crowds. Soon after Erdogan updated his Twitter to feature a photo of him in an imposing pose wearing a jet pilot uniform. He had rounded off his campaign with evening prayers at the grand Hagia Sophia which had been converted to a mosque 3 years ago.
Clearly he could cater to nationalist and conservative brigades in equal measure. In contrast, the opposition’s mild mannered Kemal Kilicdaroglu was left lamenting rising prices of onion. The humble vegetable didn’t stand a chance against the macho display of the nationalist hero.
Middle East Arabs were initially wary of the rising star of the Mediterranean region. They have now realized the longevity of Erdogan and have apparently been cosying up. Rightly so as the astute leader may go down in history as one who could defy anti-incumbency in spite of leaving the economy in a shambles.
Erdogan is a statesman on the world stage and his country, a global player. It doesn’t matter if the people are financially ruined. They have the dapper gentleman on their screens having a tête-à-tête with world leaders and vowing to “Make Turkey Great Again.” Other aspiring leaders may wish to borrow a leaf from his vaunted book of statecraft.
