Sudan Teeters on the Brink of Civil War as UN Warns of Impending Crisis

Rabat – The UN has once again raised the alarm about the ongoing fight in Sudan between the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese army, warning of a “full scale civil war.”

In a statement published on the United Nations website on July 8, Farhan Haq, Deputy Spokesperson for Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, quoted the UN chief as warning that the war between the two parties is likely to destabilize the entire region.

At least 3,000 people have been killed and 6,000 wounded in the conflict since tensions erupted almost three months ago, with many reports indicating a wave of sexual violence and ethnicity target killings. There have been several initiatives to achieve truce with the US and Saudi Arabia adjourning themselves after weeks of negotiations.

The fighting broke out in mid-April as a result of divergences between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who were both part of the 2021 coup that removed the Western-backed government of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. In response to the escalating conflict between rival Sudanese military factions that has persisted for the past 12 weeks, Egypt has announced plans to host a summit between the parties on July 13.

The summit, to be held in Cairo, will aim to foster collaborative efforts with neighboring states to bring about a peaceful resolution to the crisis.

The Egyptian presidency has emphasized the need to develop effective mechanisms in coordination with regional and international initiatives, as diplomatic endeavors thus far have proven unsuccessful.

Egypt, considered the Sudanese army’s primary foreign ally, and the United Arab Emirates, which maintains close ties with the RSF, have not played prominent public roles thus far. Moreover, they were not involved in the US- and Saudi Arabia-led talks held recently in Jeddah, which adjourned last month without achieving any lasting ceasefire.

Sudanese delegations including representatives from civilian parties that shared power with the army and RSF following the overthrow of former President Omar al-Bashir four years ago, are expected to convene today in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, for exploratory talks. These talks come amidst reports of clashes between the army and RSF in El Obeid, southwest of Khartoum, as well as in the southern part of the capital.

Dangerous and Disturbing

In a distressing development, Sudan’s health ministry reported that a fighter jet strike in Omdurman, a district within the broader capital, resulted on Saturday in the deaths of 22 individuals. The RSF attributed the attack to the military, while the army denied responsibility, asserting that the RSF has been using residential areas as shields and falsely accusing the army of killing civilians when it attacks RSF positions.

The army has heavily relied on airstrikes and artillery bombardments to repel RSF troops spread across Khartoum, Omdurman, and Khartoum North. Violence has also flared in other regions of Sudan, particularly in the western Darfur area, where local residents claim that Arab tribal militias, along with the RSF, have targeted civilians based on ethnicity. These incidents have sparked concerns of a recurrence of mass atrocities witnessed in the region after 2003.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has condemned the alarming development, denouncing the airstrike on Omdurman, which reportedly claimed the lives of at least 22 people and left numerous others injured. Guterres’s deputy spokesperson, Farham Haq, also conveyed the UN chief’s deep concern that the ongoing conflict between the rival armed forces is pushing Sudan perilously close to a full-scale civil war, with the potential to destabilize the entire region.

The conflict, which erupted on April 15 in Khartoum, has forced over 2.9 million people from their homes, including nearly 700,00 who have sought refuge in neighboring countries. But as many of these neighboring countries are grappling with their own internal conflicts and poverty, they are now facing significant challenges in accommodating the influx of Sudanese refugees.

As of the end of June, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported that a total of 36,423 refugees had been relocated to seven existing camps in Chad, with two new camps also established. The UNHCR anticipates that the ongoing violence may lead to the arrival of up to 245,000 refugees by the end of the year, necessitating preparations to accommodate and support them.