Rabat – Nigeria’s plan to become a major supplier of gas to Europe was derailed after the diplomatic fallout with neighboring Niger. The country is now looking to pivot towards a new pipeline route reaching all the way to Morocco, American market research firm S&P Insights says.
The Trans-Saharan gas pipeline, a long-held ambition to supply Europe via Algeria, has been thrown into jeopardy following a breakdown in relations between Nigeria and Niger.
The coup that ousted Niger’s president Mohammed Bazoum in July 2023 led to punitive economic sanctions from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), halting progress on the project.
With the Trans-Saharan pipeline facing an uncertain future, Nigerian authorities are now eyeing an alternative route, and looking towards the massive 5,600-kilometer pipeline stretching from Nigeria to Morocco, exiting Algeria from the plan.
The ambitious plan would be capable of delivering 3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas and could traverse 13 West African countries.
Despite being Africa’s largest oil producer, Nigeria is a relatively minor player in the gas sector. However, the country has declared the 2020s as a “decade of gas,” highlighting its vast natural gas reserves estimated at 203 trillion cubic feet (Tcf).
The country’s aspiration to supply Europe aligns with the continent’s increasing efforts to diversify away from Russian gas.
However, Nigeria’s LNG exports to Europe saw a significant 22.7% drop in 2023, due in part to insufficient deepwater gas projects and export infrastructure.
The Trans-Saharan pipeline was seen as a solution to bolster exports, but with diplomatic relations frozen and Niger potentially exiting ECOWAS, the project’s future looks bleak, the report argues.
The report adds that in light of these challenges, Nigerian officials have intensified efforts to expedite the Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline. Ekperikpe Ekpo, Nigeria’s Minister of State for Gas, recently visited Rabat to push for progress on the project, emphasizing its strategic importance for both Nigeria and Morocco.
Despite the enthusiasm surrounding the project, S&P Insight cautions that significant hurdles remain, including financing and logistical complexities.
In addition, Nigeria currently struggles to meet European gas demand while North African countries like Algeria and Libya have already capitalized on Europe’s shifting energy supply chain.
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