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The United States is expected to begin feeling the effects of President Donald Trump’s tariff wars as early as May, with major ports bracing for a sharp decline in imports over the coming weeks.
Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, announced last week that the San Pedro Bay Complex in California is projected to see a 44% year-over-year drop in vessel calls.
Cordero warned that this downturn in cargo volume—largely driven by the 145% tariffs imposed on Chinese goods—will likely persist into the third quarter of 2025 as the ports are heavily dependent on imports from China.
A recent report from the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation further highlighted the economic threat posed by the tariffs, estimating that they endanger $500 billion in revenue and put 2 million local jobs at risk.
The World Trade Organization also weighed in, cautioning that escalating trade tensions between the US and China could slash bilateral trade by as much as 80%. This has sparked alarm among business owners nationwide.
US media outlets are now warning that the broader impact of these tariffs will soon be felt by everyday Americans, with economists predicting a recession by summer. Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, explained that, given the time required for goods to ship from China, consumers could begin experiencing shortages by May. He likened the anticipated supply disruptions to those seen during the 2020 pandemic.
Slok, along with the Port of Long Beach, noted that a wave of canceled or postponed sailings has already pushed shipping activity to levels not seen since COVID-19. “The consequence will be empty shelves in US stores in a few weeks and COVID-like shortages for consumers and firms relying on Chinese goods as intermediate products,” warned Slok.
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According to his projections, container ship arrivals at US ports could halt by early to mid-May. This would be followed by a sharp drop in trucking demand, leading to empty store shelves and declining corporate revenues. Layoffs in the trucking and retail sectors could begin by late May or early June, culminating in a recession by summer 2025.
Donald Trump has long argued that his tariff policy would boost domestic manufacturing. He believes that making foreign goods more expensive will encourage companies to shift production back to the US, creating jobs and reducing dependence on overseas supply chains.
Many observers and economists fear that American consumers will still face higher prices even if tariffs succeed in reshoring production.
“If production moves to the US, prices will be higher,” said Larry Harris, a professor of economics. “The reason those goods aren’t made in the US in the first place is because we can’t produce them as cheaply as other countries can.”
While American households are set to soon feel the consequences of the tariff wars at the checkout lines, Trump continues to downplay the risks and emphasize that any felt setbacks are just part of a transitional period.
“You just don’t know it yet, but this is a tremendous success what’s happening,” said Trump in a recent interview with Time Magazine. “I don’t believe it’ll be inflation. I think it’ll be lack of loss for our country,” he insisted.
