Rabat – Morocco’s trade deficit is set to grow over the next two years, reflecting a deep imbalance between the country’s rising internal demand and the limited pace of its export growth.
According to the High Commission for Planning (HCP), the gap could reach 19.8% of GDP in 2025, after standing at 19.1% in 2024.
The trend may continue into 2026, when the trade deficit is projected to climb to 20.1%.
Behind these figures lies a story of a country pulled in two extreme directions. One is marked by an energetic domestic economy, and the other weighed down by an unfavorable global context.
Morocco’s strong internal demand continues to fuel imports. Meanwhile, exports remain constrained, affected by European economic stagnation and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
A mixed export outlook
Phosphate and its derivatives should continue to hold firm. With global demand staying high and restrictions still affecting supply from countries like China and Russia, Morocco maintains an advantage.
Agriculture and agri-food products may also perform well, supported by favorable weather and a good harvest season.
Other sectors face more difficult terrain. The textile industry shows signs of strain, hit by weak European demand and tougher global competition.
The automotive sector, once one of Morocco’s strongest economic stories, also finds itself under pressure. Technical issues and a shift in Europe away from combustion-engine vehicles may drag on exports in 2025. Still, Morocco’s gradual orientation toward electric mobility gives the sector some space to pivot and adjust to shifting demand.
Investment fuels import growth
Imports tell a different story. Morocco’s growing appetite for capital goods, semi-finished products, and consumer items reflects a broader investment dynamic across the country.
The HCP expects imports of goods to jump by 8.8% in 2025 and a further 7.9% in 2026. While the country may reduce its reliance on imported wheat, thanks to a stronger domestic harvest, the need to import livestock remains pressing as local herds recover slowly.
The country’s services sector also continues to play a stabilizing role. Morocco’s tourism industry stands out, helping the balance of services remain strong.
Travel and transport receipts remain solid and may provide a buffer in the face of rising goods imports. This dynamic should carry into 2026, as Morocco consolidates its position as a leading destination in the region.
Overall, the value of exported goods and services could rise by 6.7% in 2025. But with imports expected to grow at 8.5%, the net impact on national growth turns negative.
External demand would likely shave 1.4 percentage points off growth in 2025, and another 0.9 points the following year.
While the trade deficit deepens, the current account remains relatively contained. The HCP expects it to reach 1.8% of GDP in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.
Slower growth in remittances from Moroccans living abroad weighs on this balance, even as strong revenues from services and stable income flows help keep the overall deficit within manageable levels.
The picture that emerges is one of contrasts. A domestic economy that keeps moving forward, and an international environment that continues to hold back some of Morocco’s most dynamic sectors.
The next two years may not bring balance, but they do offer time for Morocco to recalibrate.
