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Mohammedia – Morocco is moving into 2026 on firmer economic and policy ground, recording stronger growth, easing inflation and a wave of structural reforms that signal a shift from crisis response to long-term transformation.
According to the latest European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) Transition Report “BRAVE OLD WORLD”, the country’s recovery has broadened across sectors, while renewed confidence from international institutions is helping reinforce stability.
Real GDP rose 4.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, nearly doubling the pace of the previous year as industry, services and a modest agricultural rebound pushed activity upward.
Inflation slid to an average of 1.2% between January and July, creating space for Bank Al-Maghrib to maintain its more accommodative stance after 75 basis points of rate cuts over the past year.
Tourism also delivered a powerful boost, with arrivals jumping 16% year-on-year through July.
A prolonged drought continues to cast a shadow over rural livelihoods, however. While agricultural output grew 4.6% over the same six-month period, the sector shed more than 100,000 jobs compared to 2024, underscoring the vulnerability of Morocco’s countryside to climate pressures.
Job gains in services and industry offset part of this loss, bringing unemployment down to 12.8% by June.
International markets have responded favorably to the country’s improving fundamentals. Morocco issued €2 billion in Eurobonds in March, attracting demand more than three times the offer size, while foreign reserves climbed 12% to $45.4 billion (MAD 420.54 billion) in August — enough for over five months of imports.
Goods exports rose 5.8% in 2024, driven by phosphates and automotive shipments, and tourism continues to outperform.
A year marked by deep structural reforms
Beyond short-term figures, 2025 has been shaped by reforms that could define Morocco’s economic model in the years ahead.
The government completed its $1.2 billion (MAD 11.12 billion) IMF Resilience and Sustainability Facility programme in March and secured a two-year $4.5 billion (MAD 41.68 billion) Flexible Credit Line in April, a rare instrument reserved for countries with strong macroeconomic management and policy frameworks.
The credit line is expected to strengthen buffers against external shocks while supporting ongoing reforms.
One of the most significant shifts is unfolding in the governance of state-owned enterprises. The National Agency for the Strategic Management of State Holdings has begun consolidating shareholder accounts under IFRS standards, preparing performance management tools and advancing work on performance contracts.
While budget transfers to SOEs have risen — reaching 3.4% of GDP in 2024 — the reforms aim to reduce long-term fiscal pressures and improve operational discipline.
Energy and climate governance also saw major developments. The electricity regulator approved the separation of ONEE’s production, transmission and distribution accounts, a key step toward greater transparency for investors in renewables.
New tariffs for medium-voltage networks were introduced, and climate assessments based on IPCC scenarios were incorporated into the country’s medium-term fiscal framework.
These measures support Morocco’s ambition to expand renewable energy, strengthen water management and explore opportunities in green hydrogen and desalination.
Morocco heads into 2026 with steady momentum, backed by growth forecasts of 4.2% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, the EBRD says. The outlook is supported by phosphates, infrastructure investment, tourism and an expected agricultural recovery.
Maintaining that pace, the report notes, will hinge on pushing ahead with fiscal consolidation, overhauling state-owned enterprises and advancing energy and climate reforms that are already underway.
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