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Marrakech – India is actively negotiating with Morocco, Russia, and Belarus to secure additional fertilizer supplies as the Strait of Hormuz closure and Chinese export restrictions threaten to tighten global availability ahead of the summer planting season.
According to Reuters, New Delhi is moving to diversify its import sources despite holding higher stocks than last year.
Indian urea and DAP inventories are up 10.7% and 105%, respectively, compared to a year ago, but government officials remain concerned about potential shortfalls during the June-July planting window. A government source told Reuters that India is in contact with Russia and others to bring in more supplies over the next few months.
The negotiations come after India formalized long-term fertilizer agreements with several resource-rich countries.
According to a March 10 statement by India’s Department of Fertilizers, these arrangements include annual quantities of 2.5 million tonnes from Morocco, 3.1 million tonnes from Saudi Arabia, and 3.01 million tonnes from Russia. The agreements are expected to strengthen India’s fertilizer supply chain during the 2025-26 season.
Morocco’s growing role as a supplier extends beyond India. According to Argus Media, OCP sold 90,000 tonnes of phosphate fertilizers to Latin American markets for April shipment, while the United States has also moved to secure fertilizer supply from Morocco after dismissing a long-running legal appeal over countervailing duties (CVD) against OCP on March 4.
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told CNBC on March 17 that Washington has held discussions with Morocco as part of its efforts to minimize disruptions for American farmers.
India’s urgency is not without cause. The country is the world’s largest importer of DAP, accounting for 28.7% of the international market, according to the NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor published on March 12.
The report found that India received 9.7 million metric tons of fertilizer from the Persian Gulf in 2024, representing roughly 54% of its total fertilizer imports. Some 81% of India’s ammonia consumption transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait has been effectively closed to commercial traffic since March 2 after Iran retaliated against US-Israeli attacks with drone strikes on Gulf shipping. Major P&I clubs canceled war-risk insurance by March 5, halting virtually all commercial transit.
According to the NDSU report, between 2.1 and 3.2 million metric tons of fertilizer exits the Persian Gulf monthly through Hormuz.
Morocco, the world’s largest phosphate exporter through its OCP Group, faces its own constraints from the Hormuz closure. According to the NDSU report, OCP depends on roughly 3.7 million metric tons of Gulf sulfur annually. Sulfuric acid is required for all phosphate fertilizer production, including DAP and MAP.
The closure cuts off the sulfur feedstock that Morocco needs to manufacture its own phosphate products, potentially constraining its DAP and MAP output at a time when global demand is surging.
The report described this as a cascading effect. Three of the five major global phosphate sources face simultaneous supply pressure for different reasons traceable to the same event. China’s phosphate export ban, reinforced by sulfur shortages, runs through August.
Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden DAP production is physically blocked behind the Strait. Morocco’s output is constrained by the sulfur supply disruption.
The Indian government has also prioritized gas supplies to domestic fertilizer plants, ensuring they receive at least 70% of their average consumption, according to Reuters.
Qatar, India’s largest supplier of imported LNG, has seen shipments disrupted after Iran threatened to fire on vessels moving through the Strait. A Mumbai-based fertilizer industry official told Reuters that urea prices have risen above $600 per ton from below $425 before the war.
According to the NDSU report, urea prices at the US Gulf Coast jumped 21.28% in the first 10 days following Operation Epic Fury/Operation Roaring Lion. Egyptian urea prices rose 25%, reaching $625 per metric ton, according to Supply Chain Digital.
The NDSU report noted that unlike the 2022 Ukraine crisis, when Russian fertilizers were rerouted to alternative buyers, Gulf production behind a closed Strait has no viable exit route.
India also plans to approach Indonesia for fertilizer supplies, Reuters reported, though officials acknowledged that Indonesian export volumes are government-controlled and likely small. Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal confirmed that the Department of Fertilizers has floated tenders in anticipation of the current situation, drawing strong responses.
The crisis arrives just before the Northern Hemisphere spring planting season. According to the NDSU report, the key uncertainty in 2026 is the duration of the Strait’s closure. A prolonged shutdown could push fertilizer prices toward or beyond 2022 peaks, when urea reached $925 per metric ton and DAP exceeded $1,000 per ton.
