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Casablanca – Morocco’s economy showed mixed signals in early 2026, with stronger public finances and investment offset by uneven sector performance and global uncertainty, according to the latest outlook from the Finance Ministry’s Directorate of Studies and Financial Forecasts.
The country posted a budget surplus of MAD 5.1 billion ($552.23 million) by the end of March, up sharply from MAD 768 million ($83.16 million) a year earlier. This came as ordinary revenues rose by 8.4%, or MAD 9 billion ($974.53 million), outpacing a 4.4% increase in overall spending.
Bank lending also accelerated. Credit growth reached 8.3% by the end of February, compared to 3.9% a year earlier. Loans to the financial sector jumped 20.8%, while credit to the non-financial sector rose 5.8%, including 4.1% for companies and 3.4% for households.
On the external front, exports increased modestly by 2%, driven mainly by strong gains in the automotive sector at 10.3%, aerospace at 16.5%, and electronics at 2.5%. Imports rose 1.9%, led by equipment goods up 14.5%, consumer goods up 9.3%, and raw products up 32.9%. The trade deficit widened slightly by 1.7%, while the coverage ratio improved marginally to 59.2%.
Agriculture up, industry uneven
Agriculture stood out. Cereal production for the 2025–2026 season is estimated at 90 million quintals, supported by strong rainfall averaging 520 mm, up 54% compared to the long-term average. Dam fill rates reached 75.7% by April 20, compared to 40% a year earlier.
Industry, however, showed mixed results. Manufacturing activity remained relatively solid, with a capacity utilization rate of 77.5% and improved exports in several segments. But other areas declined. Phosphate output dropped 9.9%, electricity production fell 1.7%, and cement sales, a key indicator for construction, were down 10.9% by the end of March.
Read more: Morocco to Host Major Automotive Industry Event in Kenitra
Services continued to hold up. Tourist arrivals rose 7% by the end of March, while overnight stays increased 4% by February. Travel receipts jumped 22.2%. Air passenger traffic grew 7.9% and overall port activity increased 8.9%
Inflation remained nearly flat, at -0.1% by the end of March, compared to 2% a year earlier. This helped support household consumption, alongside a 3.9% rise in consumer credit and a 4.2% increase in remittances from Moroccans abroad.
Globally, growth prospects have weakened. The IMF now expects world GDP growth at 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.3% previously, amid rising geopolitical tensions and energy shocks. Brent crude stood at 108 dollars per barrel on April 21, reflecting continued volatility.
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