Opta Predicts France Glory, Deals Blow to Argentina’s Title Defense

Rabat – According to the latest projections from the Opta supercomputer, France have emerged as the favorites to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with the analytics model also predicting a final against England. 

With the tournament down to its final four nations, France, Spain, England, and Argentina, Opta gives Didier Deschamps’ side the highest probability of lifting the trophy on July 19. 

Opta’s latest 25.000 tournament simulations predict France have a 57.7% chance of reaching the final and a 34% chance of winning the World Cup, making Les Bleus the most likely champions. 

Spain rank second in the projections despite facing France in the semifinals. Luis de la Fuente’s side are given a 42.3% chance of reaching the final and a 23.4% probability of winning the tournament.

The numbers suggest Tuesday’s semifinal between France and Spain is effectively the competition’s defining fixture, with the eventual winner expected to become the strongest favorite heading into the final. 

France’s impressive campaign has been driven by the attacking partnership of Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé, who have combined for 13 goals during the tournament. Mbappé currently shares the Golden Boot lead with Argentina captain Lionel Messi on eight goals, while Dembélé has scored five.

Their 2-0 victory over Morocco in the quarterfinals also saw Deschamps make history. The French manager recorded his 20th World Cup victory, becoming the first coach ever to reach that milestone. His semifinal appearance will also make him the outright record holder for most FIFA World Cup matches managed. 

Spain, meanwhile, continue to build momentum after extending the longest unbeaten run in their history to 36 matches, a streak stretching back to March 2024.

The Spaniards needed another late intervention from substitute Mikel Merino to eliminate Belgium in the quarterfinals, just as he had done against Portugal in the Round of 16.

On the Other side of the bracket, England and Argentina remain in contention despite receiving lower title probabilities.

England have often found ways to win without dominating matches, while Argentina continue their title defense after navigating a relatively favorable route to the semifinals.

Although Opta’s projection favors France, the supercomputer’s forecasts remain probabilities rather than guarantees. With only four former world champions left standing, the race for the title remains wide open.