Rabat – The Maghreb “is by far the least integrated region” both politically and economically, according to a new report by Moroccan think tank Policy Center for the New South (PCNS).
In his Throne Day speech on July 30 to commemorate the 22nd year of his accession to the throne, King Mohammed urged Algeria to revive bilateral relations with Morocco.
With the King’s dialogue offer to Algeria having revived debates around the postcolonial dream of Maghrebi integration, the PCNS has produced a particularly realistic analysis of the geopolitical situation in the Maghreb in 2020 and the prospects for reactivating the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU).
According to the analysis, a positive response to the King’s call for dialogue and the opening of borders between Morocco and Algeria could be a major step towards the construction of the AMU.
The Maghreb has been severely disrupted over the past year, both politically and economically, as well as socially and security-wise. The situation in the region in 2020 accentuates the geopolitical fragility of the region and the disillusionment of its inhabitants, who were expecting a formal commitment from the political authorities to normalize regional relations and relaunch the integration process.
This stagnant situation, according to the PCNS, stems from a number of factors that have driven the regional political game since the independence of the Maghreb countries. It adds that the region’s crisis has been compounded by the Libyan imbroglio, the rise of violent sub-state actors and the crisis of political transitions.
At the heart of the the heart of the Maghreb paradox is the Moroccan-Algerian rivalry and its corollary, namely the Western Sahara dispute. This is the case both because of the weight of the deep and lasting differences between the two countries and because of the persistence of an outdated concept of leadership, both among some decision-makers and among a large part of the Maghrebi intelligentsia.
Also stressed in PCNS’ report is the “interdependent and permanent” link between the level of economic development and security.
The key socio-economic common occurrence in all maghreb countries is the creation of wealth that does not always benefit the population and the territory as a whole, while regional discrepancies and levels of socioeconomic divide are different.
Pointing to the shared history and culture binding countries across the Maghreb, the PCNS highlights that “this part of the world meets the necessary elements to create a regional whole.” Despite the region constituting a perfect cluster for a project of socio-economic integration or political alliance, it has failed to live up to its expectations.
According to the PSNS analysis, “five preconditions must be met” for the realization of the AMU project. First, the revival of the regional process requires a new balance between the primacy of economic integration and the legitimate defense of national interests.
It is imperative that Maghrebians replace the statist paradigm that has shaped their relations since independence with the social and democratic foundations of Maghrebian construction.
Second, Moroccan-Algerian detente is a precondition for Maghrebi stability and integration.
In other words, the two countries are condemned to engage in a strategic dialogue, if they want to diffuse the tension that has prevailed for the past four decades and avoid further escalations. This means genuine dialogue between Algiers and Rabat must lay the foundations for the settlement of a hefty liability, largely fueled by the dispute over the Sahara.
The Maghreb also has an obligation to consolidate the democratic processes in its respective member states. The success of political reforms in all the countries of the region will certainly create the need to reactivate the AMU.
The societal links will then have a better chance of strengthening and acting durably as levers of Maghrebian unity.
It will then be necessary to take urgent normative measures within the framework of the AMU, by updating the agreements already signed and ensuring the application of their provisions, while proceeding to the conclusion of new global and sectoral agreements.
The five member states – Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia – should also initiate a debate on the amendment of the instituting Marrakesh Treaty to introduce new institutional and political provisions to the regional legal body framing the union.
Finally, to avoid the Maghreb’s dependence on international political and geopolitical circumstances, the five countries should demonstrate a strong desire for strategic autonomy vis-a-vis the major powers, which are concerned with preserving their strategic, political and economic assets.
