Rabat – A report published last month by the European Union’s Joint Research Council (JRC) warns that Morocco and the wider Mediterranean region face a deepening drought crisis that is already having major impacts.
After six straight years of drought in Morocco and over two years of severe drought across southern Europe and North Africa, the situation remains alarming according to the JRC analysis. Their combined drought indicator shows Morocco experiencing critical drought conditions in early 2023, with the outlook only worsening heading into spring.
The JRC report singles out Morocco as an area of “severe concern.” The country’s dams currently hold only around 23% of average capacity – a lower level than the approximately 32% recorded last year.
In the six years of drought, water reservoirs in Morocco have reached critically low levels. Cities have been forced to ban using potable water for activities like cleaning roads and watering parks.
The drought is expected to take a major toll on Morocco’s vital agricultural sector this year.
The majority of the country’s 155,000 hectares of farmland depend solely on rainfall rather than irrigation. But rainfall over the important winter planting season is down 44% compared to 2023.
Farmers had already scaled back cereal crop plantings in anticipation of another dry year. However it is already clear that wheat and barley harvests will be devastated according to reports from major cereal growing regions.
In an interview with Le Jeune Afrique, the prominent agronomist Abderrahim Handouf warned that the 2024 drought may have a “grave impact on the economy”. Agriculture employs around one-third of the population and generates 14% of crucial export revenue for Morocco.
While large commercial growers can fall back on irrigation to preserve crop yields, small subsistence farmers have no such safety net with over 88% of farms reliant on rain.
Handouf argues that Morocco’s export-oriented agricultural model centered on water-intensive fruit crops should be “reviewed from top to bottom” given declining water resources.
Other experts argue that promoting efficient irrigation has perversely incentivized expansion of thirsty orchards at the expense of traditional drought-resistant cereal crops.
The problems may intensify heading into spring, warns the JRC analysis. It predicts an elevated risk of warmer and drier than average conditions during March, April and May across Morocco and the wider Mediterranean region. This could further stress rain-reliant agriculture and place additional pressure on already depleted dams and groundwater reserves.
The JRC concludes that the drought highlights the need for “adaptation strategies” focused on improving drought resilience, preparedness and response across the Mediterranean.
The report argues that investment in water efficiency and management must be paired with climate change mitigation to limit global warming to 1.5°C. It ends saying that even incremental temperature rise will sharply elevate regional drought risk.
With Morocco entering its sixth year of drought in 2024, the threat to water and food security continues to mount. In his interview with the French newsource, agronomist Handouf also remarks that “the government seems to be looking one way while reality is facing the opposite direction”. This sentiment seems to be evident because despite sanctions on water usage, production of water-intensive crops has been continuing business as usual.
The coming years may test whether Morocco and regional neighbors can adapt fast enough to the accelerating impacts of human-caused climate change.
