Doha – The release of the latest Human Development Index (HDI) report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has sparked a heated debate about the accuracy and relevance of these rankings in assessing Morocco’s development progress.
The report, which measures average achievement in three basic dimensions of human development—a long and healthy life, knowledge, and a decent standard of living—placed Morocco 120th out of 193 countries, behind several of its regional neighbors, including Libya, Algeria, and Tunisia.
Misleading data
The HDI is a composite index that combines data on life expectancy, education, and per capita income to rank countries into four tiers of human development: very high, high, medium, and low. But critics argue that the rankings can be misleading, noting that they often rely heavily on technical and practical data that may not accurately reflect the reality on the ground.
To gain a deeper understanding of this issue, Morocco World News interviewed Abdelkarim Amengay, a political scientist and assistant professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies in Qatar.
One of the main points he emphasized was that countries ranked higher than Morocco, such as Libya, are often either European countries, OECD members, microstates, or oil-producing nations. Yet it isn’t logical for a country like Libya, where state institutions have been dysfunctional for more than 10 years if not more, to be considered better than Morocco in terms of human development, he argued.
“The problem with such rankings is that they are heavily based on GDP per capita, which automatically favors oil-producing countries but doesn’t reflect the reality of other factors,” Amengay explained.
The increase in GDP in some countries, even if there is no substantial improvement in their citizens’ real-life conditions, makes them appear advanced in their ranking. Their progress comes based on production data related to the high prices of selling the oil or gas wealth they produce in abundance, even if they are faced with a decline or stoppage in the health and education indicators. In other words, whenever the oil prices increase, the GDP per capita is automatically inflated.
Amengay highlighted the fact that Morocco has launched significant initiatives and reforms in education and health, such as the National Initiative for Human Development (INDH). The initiative was established more than a decade ago to improve Moroccans’ life conditions.
“While the implementation of those policies faced several challenges and have been unable to achieve all their goals, it is hard to accept the critics’ claims that the state didn’t yield any results, especially when the situation in Morocco is clearly better than in some of the countries ranked higher in the HDI report, one needs just to visit Egypt or Lebanon to be convinced,” he said.
Morocco’s evolving human development situation
Moreover, Amengay noted that Morocco’s GDP has more than doubled in the past 22 years, growing from $43.02 billion in 2000 to over $130.9 billion in 2022. This impressive economic growth, he argued, should be taken into account when assessing the country’s development progress.
To further illustrate Morocco’s development, Amengay conducted a data analysis using information from the HDI report over the past 12 years. His findings suggested that Morocco actually ranked 8th in the world and 2nd in the Arab region, behind only the United Arab Emirates, in terms of HDI improvement over the specified period.
The data showed that Morocco’s HDI value increased from 0.604 in 2010 to 0.698 in 2022, a change of 0.094 points or a 15.6% improvement. This progress is particularly impressive when compared to the global average HDI improvement of 0.020 points during the same period.
When comparing Morocco to Jordan and Tunisia, two countries often considered to have similar conditions, Amengay suggested looking at the progress made over the past 12 years. According to his analysis, Morocco’s HDI value increased by 0.094 points between 2010 and 2022, while Jordan and Tunisia’s HDI values only increased by 0.009 and 0.019 points respectively during the same period.
He also highlighted that at least three regions in Morocco have already surpassed the 0.700 threshold, placing them in the “High HDI” category. This underscores the critical issue of regional disparities within the country, as some regions with lower HDI scores can negatively impact the overall national ranking. While some regions are doing great in terms of human development many are still left behind.
Looking ahead, Amengay expressed optimism that Morocco will reach the “High HDI” category in the next report. With a current score of 0.698, just below the 0.700 threshold for the “High” category, and considering the country’s consistent progress over the past 12 years, it is likely that Morocco will achieve this milestone soon, he explained. The launch of new projects, such as the New Development Model (NDM) and direct support initiatives, are expected to further contribute to this progress.
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Amengay called for a more comprehensive approach to assessing Morocco’s human development, rather than relying solely on HDI rankings. Because accurate measurement of human development is a complex endeavor, he argued, it is crucial to look at the bigger picture, including a country’s tangible efforts in this area, initiatives, and regional differences.
Amengay also drew attention to the limitations of the HDI report itself. He pointed out that the rankings are based on the data provided by governments and local agencies which don’t always follow the best scientific practices or ethical standards.
This data collection process may be inaccurate or even intentionally skewed, as the results often contain an extremely high degree of uncertainty. This can give the impression that the rankings don’t align with the lived reality, especially since they are built on composite aggregate indicators.
In the introduction to its Human Development Index (HDI) report, the UNDP simultaneously sought to reaffirm the validity of its conclusions while leaving room for doubt about the viability of the data on which those conclusions are based.
“All the figures included in the Statistical Annex are from official sources. All reasonable precautions have been taken by the HDRO to verify the information contained in this publication,” it said. “However, the published material is being distributed without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied.”
For Professor Amengay, such disclaimers underscore the need for caution when interpreting the HDI rankings and the importance of considering the broader context and the tangible improvements in the lives of Moroccan citizens.
