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Marrakech – A recent report by the Migration Research Institute identifies Morocco as “the most stable country in the entire Maghreb” and indicates major diplomatic developments may soon reshape the Western Sahara dispute.
Despite persistent high-level tensions with neighboring Algeria, Morocco maintains “almost unconditional U.S. support,” according to the “Morocco at Crossroads” report released on June 24.
The analysis states that “the coming months” could see both China and Russia “approve Moroccan advance in the so-called ‘Moroccan Sahara’” at the UN Security Council, following similar positions already adopted by the United States, France, and the UK.
The report notes that since the US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in 2020, the territory “has been included in Moroccan territory on U.S. maps.” France followed the US last summer, while the UK made a similar move this month. Among the permanent members of the UN Security Council, “only China and Russia are missing for the final word.”
Growing energy investment hub
Strategic investments are propelling Morocco to the forefront of the global energy transition. Possessing 70% of the world’s phosphate reserves, the country controls a crucial resource for mid to low-end batteries and “can oust Indonesia in this sector due to proximity to the EU’s market.”
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, China’s CNGR Advanced Material announced a $2 billion investment to construct a cathode plant in Morocco aimed at supplying American and European electric battery markets, “circumventing recent legislative restrictions.”
For the director of CNGR Europe, Morocco represents a “sweet spot” as “fewer permits are needed to build, and products can be redirected from there to third countries in the event of European and American market closures.”
In a parallel development, September 2023 saw LG Chem (South Korea) and Huayou Cobalt (China) announce “the construction of a lithium cathode and refining plant in Morocco” where “the competitive environment is similar to the South American quadrant where they aim at the exclusivity of Argentine lithium.”
The document explains that CNGR “invests in synergy with the ruling dynasty and aims to produce 1 million electric vehicles per year spread between Tesla, CATL (Chinese too) and LG Chem.” However, it cautions that “the activities in connection with China are borderline,” referencing a Chatham House report on Morocco and Tunisia.
French backing for Morocco has intensified, with French Trade Minister Franck Riester revealing that “Proparco, a subsidiary of the French Development Agency, could contribute to the financing of the high-voltage line between Dakhla, the largest centre in Western Sahara, and Casablanca, as well as the construction of the Morocco-Europe pipeline.”
The report discusses “the rapprochement with France due to the trip of the foreign minister Le Maire in April 2024,” as well as cultural exchanges at the Book Fair of Rabat, which the report describes as “anticipated in Paris by the French counterpart just one month ago.”
It characterizes these interactions as “Time for shaking hands, books and diplomatic intelligence, literally in the etymological sense of ‘intus legere’ or ‘read inside’.”
Morocco’s ascent amid global rivalries
Morocco’s economic strengths extend beyond energy. The analysis points out that alongside “Chinese electronic batteries and the integration of Moroccan manufacture with the EU system,” other established sectors with expansion potential include “banks, pharmaceutical industries, fertilizer and agricultural products sectors” oriented toward Sub-Saharan Africa.
The Moroccan banking sector, reformed in the 1990s, is now “increasingly professional and transparent” with three banks ranking among Africa’s top ten, controlling over $90 billion in assets and operating across 22 African countries.
The report addresses water resources as another area of contention, stating that “Morocco is going to build new big dams near the southern border with Algeria, in this way putting at risk the existence of Bechar, a big university city that also hosts an important military commando.”
On regional security challenges, the document observes that most migrants entering Europe come from Africa rather than Eastern Europe. It questions how the EU plans “to deal with a wave of migrants aged between 15 and 30 (the ‘fighting age’)” who are “sometimes indoctrinated by Islamic extremist ideologues while crossing deserts.”
The analysis proposes that Sufi orders could play a constructive role, describing them as entities “with which someone will have to conduct a dialogue” to counter extremist messages. It advocates for establishing “a cultural, even philosophical dialogue to get to know better each other’s positions” as a foundation for improved mutual understanding.
The document examines Turkiye’s growing military presence in the region, which it describes as “impressive for both Moroccan and European observers,” particularly in the Sahel region covering countries like Mali, Mauritania, and Chad.
The report concludes by examining Morocco’s delicate position between competing global powers. It reveals that China invested MAD 26 billion ($2.6 billion) in the port of Tanger Med II, which entered service in 2019.
However, it raises questions about how Morocco will defend itself in the upcoming trade conflict between the US and China while managing its ongoing tensions with Algeria.
As international recognition of Morocco’s position on Western Sahara grows, the country appears positioned to strengthen its regional influence, balancing relationships with global powers while navigating the complex geopolitical landscape of North Africa.
