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Casablanca – Morocco’s fertility rate has fallen to 1.97 children per woman in 2024, slipping below the replacement threshold for the first time in decades and marking a turning point in the country’s demographic trajectory.
The figures were presented on February 17 during a roundtable on demographic transitions. Otmane Gair, president of the National Observatory for Human Development, said the country has moved through its demographic transition at notable speed.
The population growth rate, once at 2.6% in 1994, has slowed to 0.85% in 2024. Morocco is still growing, he noted, but not because families are having many children. The increase is largely the result of demographic momentum, a younger population moving through age brackets.
At the same time, people are living much longer. Life expectancy has risen from 47 years in 1960 to 76.4 years in 2024, according to data shared by Fouzia Daoudim of the High Commission for Planning. She described the shift as structural. The age pyramid is changing shape. Fewer children at the base. More older citizens at the top.
By 2040, the share of those under 15 is projected to fall from 26.5% to 19.2%. Meanwhile, the number of people aged 60 and over is expected to climb from 5.1 million, or 13.9% of the population, to nearly 7.9 million, around 19.5%. That is a sharp rise in less than two decades.
Some effects will be immediate. Fewer school-age children could ease pressure on classrooms. But the increase in older age groups raises tougher questions. Pension systems. Healthcare services. Social protection. All will face heavier demands as the population ages.
Speakers also pointed to what demographers call a demographic window. The working-age population is projected to grow from 22.1 million in 2024 to 24.8 million before stabilizing toward the end of the next decade. That window will not remain open indefinitely.
For now, the numbers are clear. Fertility has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1. Growth has slowed to 0.85%. And Morocco is entering a phase where aging will shape economic and social policy more than high birth rates ever did.
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