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Marrakech – A new country policy report released last week by the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank, offers one of the most comprehensive English-language assessments of Morocco’s political, economic, and geopolitical trajectory to date.
Authored by Lana Bleik, Hafed Al Ghwell, and Yusuf Can, the report frames Morocco as a nation that has outgrown its traditional role and now operates as “a proactive regional actor and stable anchor at the crossroads of Europe and Africa.”
It characterizes the country’s foreign policy approach as “strategic transactionality,” a framework built on disciplined alignment of interests. Under this model, the kingdom secures diplomatic and economic support while offering cooperation on shared priorities ranging from counterterrorism to migration management to energy security.
Sitting at the center of that foreign policy architecture is the Western Sahara dispute. The Stimson report designates Morocco’s assertion of sovereignty over the territory as “the cornerstone of its foreign policy,” recalling how this highly strategic dossier shapes “nearly every dimension” of the kingdom’s diplomatic positioning.
Morocco administers the territory west of the defensive sand wall, while the area to the east constitutes a UN-monitored buffer zone. The report specifies that “the Polisario Front maintains no administrative or civilian presence inside Western Sahara” and that the population linked to the group “resides in camps near Tindouf, Algeria.”
The UN Security Council’s adoption of Resolution 2797 in October 2025 receives prominent treatment. The Stimson Center describes the resolution, which centers Morocco’s autonomy plan as the primary basis for resolving the conflict, as “the most significant multilateral diplomatic victory for Rabat to date.”
The report notes that negotiating rounds have since taken place in Madrid and Washington “under US leadership and UN facilitation.” It adds that US executive and congressional actors “have raised concerns about Polisario links to regional terrorist networks” and that “draft legislation has been introduced calling for the group’s designation as a foreign terrorist organization.”
Morocco’s continental diplomacy has reinforced these gains. The report records that only 15 of 54 African Union members continue to recognize the self-proclaimed “Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR),” which it notes “is not recognized by the United Nations.”
Meanwhile, 22 African states have established consulates in Morocco’s southern provinces. The country rejoined the African Union in 2017 “explicitly to contest the AU’s recognition” of the SADR “from within the organization.”
The December 2020 US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, secured as part of the Abraham Accords normalization with Israel, receives detailed analysis. The Stimson report calls the recognition “a substantial shift from previous international consensus.”
It further observes that the Biden administration’s decision not to reverse the recognition “underscores that Washington regarded it as a durable strategic determination.” The European Union, for its part, declared in a unified statement by all 27 member states that “genuine autonomy could represent the most achievable solution.”
Algeria’s growing isolation reshapes the Maghreb’s strategic calculus
The report devotes considerable attention to the Morocco-Algeria rivalry. It measures a geopolitical inversion decades in the making – Morocco converting pragmatism into diplomatic supremacy while Algeria watches its regional standing disintegrate. Rabat is banking irreversible strategic gains while Algeria hemorrhages influence across every front that matters.
It documents the military junta’s severance of diplomatic ties in August 2021, the closure of its airspace to Moroccan aircraft, and its refusal to renew the Maghreb-Europe Gas Pipeline contract with Morocco. In September 2024, Algeria imposed visa requirements on Moroccan citizens as “part of a series of escalatory measures that included public accusations of ‘Zionist espionage’ against Morocco.”
The Stimson authors note that the rivalry encompasses “competition for regional influence in Africa, divergent geopolitical orientations, and a significant arms race.” Morocco allocated $13 billion for its 2025 defense budget, while Algeria approved $25 billion.
On the Tindouf camps, the report delivers a pointed observation. It states that “Algeria has refused an independent UN census for decades” and that “a significant portion of the camp residents hold Algerian nationality.” It adds that “UNHCR has therefore never been able to register the population or verify its size.”
Yet the report introduces what it terms “cautious optimism regarding potential reconciliation.” Following Resolution 2797, King Mohammed VI extended “an open invitation to Algerian President Tebboune for sincere, brotherly dialogue.” US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff publicly estimated a deal within 60 days in October 2025.
The Stimson authors note that timeline “proved unrealistic” but reflected “a genuine US diplomatic push.” US Senior Advisor Massad Boulos visited Algiers in July 2025 and “was well received,” signaling Algeria’s interest in engaging the Trump administration “amid concerns about potential CAATSA sanctions for Algerian purchases of Russian weapons.”
What transpires from the Stimson Center’s comprehensive report is that Morocco has engineered a coalition that has practically foreclosed the Sahara debate, leaving Algeria with no cards to play and nowhere to hide.
Algeria, the report observes, “has faced growing isolation in the Sahel as its relationships with Mali and the Alliance of Sahelian States have deteriorated, while Morocco’s ties with the same states have remained stronger.” Successful reconciliation, the authors argue, “could integrate the wider Maghreb economy, reduce irregular migration to Europe, expand energy cooperation, and enable more effective Sahel counter-terrorism coordination.”
Morocco’s normalization with Israel under the Abraham Accords opened cooperation spanning “hundreds of millions of dollars in trade, tourism, direct flights, defense, cybersecurity, water technology, and agricultural innovation.” The report notes the kingdom balances this engagement against domestic sensitivities, as “public opinion remains pro-Palestinian” and the government maintains support for a two-state solution.
Economic transformation underpins Morocco’s diplomatic repositioning
Morocco’s GDP stood at approximately $154 billion in 2024, making it Africa’s fifth-largest economy. Real GDP growth accelerated to an estimated 4.9% in 2025, buoyed by a rebound in agricultural output and a surge in large-scale infrastructure projects. Growth is projected at approximately 4.4% for 2026. Inflation decelerated sharply from 6.1% in 2023 to 0.9% in 2024.
The Stimson report identifies three intersecting dynamics defining Morocco’s current rise as a strategic middle power. The first is economic transformation through integrated automotive, aerospace, and critical minerals export clusters. The second is social consolidation through the 2021 social protection reform extending health coverage and family allowances. The third is diplomatic repositioning through the Abraham Accords normalization with Israel and the 2025 UN Security Council Resolution 2797 on Western Sahara.
The automotive sector now represents about 25% of total goods exports, surpassing phosphates. Morocco produces over a million vehicles annually as of 2026, ranking as Africa’s largest auto manufacturer. Renault and Stellantis operate large factories supported by hundreds of component suppliers forming what the report terms “an integrated automotive ecosystem.”
Morocco positions itself as a battery materials hub and green energy exporter
On critical minerals, the report notes Morocco holds 70% of global phosphate reserves and maintains significant reserves of cobalt, copper, nickel, manganese, barite, and fluorine. The state-owned mining company Managem has signed supply agreements with BMW and Renault Group, committing approximately 5,000 tonnes of low-carbon cobalt sulphate annually for seven years starting in 2025.
Chinese firms BTR New Material Group, Gotion High Tech, Huayou Cobalt, and CNGR have collectively pledged over $700 million in battery materials plants in Morocco. Gotion is building a gigafactory in Kenitra with initial capacity of 20 GWh. The report flags the growing Chinese presence as “a point of geopolitical attention for Western partners” given US and EU supply chain regulations seeking to diversify away from Chinese-dominated chains.
Morocco imports more than 90% of its energy inputs. Yet it has set a target of 56% renewable electricity capacity by 2030. The Noor Ouarzazate Solar Complex, with 580 MW capacity, ranks among the largest concentrated solar power facilities globally. Wind energy capacity reached 2,373 MW by end-2024.
The North African country approved, as of March 2025, $32.5 billion in green hydrogen projects to produce ammonia, steel, and industrial fuel. It aims to capture 4% of global hydrogen demand by 2030, targeting European exports. A dedicated “Morocco Offer” provides 1 million hectares of land to investors.
The Tanger Med port handled 10.2 million TEUs in 2024, surpassing Algeciras and becoming the largest container port in Africa and the Mediterranean. By 2025, the facility outpaced Algeciras and Valencia combined. It now hosts over 1,200 companies across automotive, aeronautics, textiles, and advanced logistics.
Structural vulnerabilities in water, jobs, and inequality test reform momentum
The report does not shy away from Morocco’s structural constraints. Per capita water availability has declined from 2,560 cubic meters in the 1960s to approximately 565 today, placing Morocco among the most water-stressed countries globally. The agricultural sector accounts for 85% of water consumption. By 2030, Morocco aims to produce 1.4 billion cubic meters of desalinated water annually.
National unemployment stood at approximately 13.3% in 2024, with youth unemployment exceeding 35% in urban areas. Female labor force participation remains at approximately 22%, one of the lowest rates globally. The informal sector remains substantial, limiting productivity growth and tax revenues.
The 2021 New Development Model targets inclusive growth through 2035. By 2024, 88% of the population had basic health coverage. Morocco phased out most fuel subsidies and is replacing butane gas and sugar subsidies with targeted direct cash transfers to low-income households. Corporate tax reform is replacing the flat 30-31% rate with a progressive system featuring lower rates for small and medium enterprises.
On education, the report notes over 40% of ten-year-olds cannot read and comprehend a simple text, citing World Bank studies. A linguistic bifurcation between Arabic-medium primary education and French-medium secondary instruction drives elevated dropout rates, particularly among rural and working-class students.
Morocco also unveiled Maroc IA 2030, a national AI roadmap projected to generate approximately 240,000 digital jobs and contribute roughly $10 billion to GDP by 2030. The Kingdom co-initiated with the United States the first UN General Assembly Resolution on Artificial Intelligence, adopted by consensus in March 2024.
The EU accounts for approximately 68% of Moroccan exports and remains the largest investor and donor. In 2025, the EU mobilized approximately €233 million in budget support for reforms spanning human development, the green transition, and economic growth. The report also documents Morocco’s expanding Gulf partnerships, with the UAE investing in real estate, ports, tourism, and renewable energy.
The Stimson Center assessment ultimately cast Morocco’s trajectory as contingent on execution. The country’s reform momentum, strategic location, and political stability position it as a consequential actor across multiple theaters.
Whether it can translate that position into broad-based prosperity depends on job creation for youth, climate adaptation, and closing the gap between policy ambition and institutional delivery.
