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Rabat – Morocco enters tomorrow’s FIFA World Cup quarter-final against France as the least favorite team, according to the Opta supercomputer.
Based on 25,000 pre-match simulations, Opta gives France a 61.7% chance of winning the match in 90 minutes and reaching the semi-finals. Morocco’s chances of securing victory in normal time stand at 16.2%, while 22.1% of the simulations predict the match will require extra time or penalties.
The numbers favor Didier Deschamps’ side, but history has repeatedly shown that potential statistics do not define Morocco’s match outcome; rather, it is the real play on the pitch that does.
Morocco’s ambition
While France carries the weight of expectation, Morocco arrives with confidence after another impressive World Cup campaign.
The Atlas Lions remain unbeaten in five matches throughout the tournament, matching the achievement they first reached during their historic run at the 2022 World Cup.
No African nation has ever gone unbeaten through its first five matches in two different World Cups.
Morocco booked their place in the quarter-finals with a convincing 3-0 victory over Canada, marking the nation’s strong presence in the World Cup.
Saibari’s fitness remains a major concern
One of the biggest questions before kickoff surrounds Ismael Saibari.
The Bayern Munich midfielder suffered a thigh injury during Morocco’s win over Canada and has missed recent training sessions.
According to Opta, his possible absence could significantly affect Morocco’s attacking threat.
Saibari scored in each of Morocco’s group-stage matches and has been one of the team’s standout performers throughout the tournament.
If he is unavailable, much of Morocco’s creativity will fall on Brahim Díaz, while captain Achraf Hakimi will again be expected to drive the team’s attack from the right flank.
Since the start of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, Diaz has contributed more goals than any other Moroccan player across all competitions, while Hakimi has created more chances than any defender across the last two World Cups.
Familiar rivals
Thursday’s match is Morocco’s first meeting with France since the 2022 World Cup semi-final, where Les Bleus won 2-0 to end the Atlas Lions’ historic run in Qatar.
Overall, France has never lost to Morocco, winning three meetings and drawing two others before their victory in Qatar.
However, there is one statistic that may encourage Moroccan supporters.
Half of France’s World Cup defeats this century have come against African teams, showing that Les Bleus have occasionally struggled against opponents from the continent despite their impressive record.
France’s ambition
France are aiming to reach a third consecutive FIFA World Cup semi-final after lifting the trophy in 2018 and finishing runners-up in 2022.
If Les Bleus advance, they will become only the third nation to reach the last four in three straight World Cups, joining Germany and Brazil.
The French also arrive in Boston in strong form, having won seven consecutive competitive matches.
Their latest victory came against Paraguay in the Round of 16, where Kylian Mbappé scored the winning goal from the penalty spot.
The Real Madrid forward has now scored seven goals in the tournament, putting him level with Norway’s Erling Haaland and just one behind Argentina captain Lionel Messi in the race for the Golden Boot.
Alongside Mbappé, Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembélé, and Bradley Barcola have formed one of the tournament’s most dangerous attacking units.
The prediction
The statistics according to Opta clearly favor France. The supercomputer sees Les Bleus reaching the semi-finals in nearly two-thirds of its simulations, making them one of the strongest favorites of the quarter-final stage.
But Morocco has spent the last four years showing that expectations matter little once the whistle blows.
The Atlas Lions shocked Belgium, Spain, and Portugal during their memorable run in the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. In this year’s edition, the Atlas Lions have proven themselves again and again, drawing against the 5-time World Cup champion Brazil and embarrassing the Netherlands with disqualification in the round of 32. And they reached the quarter-finals after a comprehensive 3-0 win over co-host Canada, 3-0.
Morocco will face France tomorrow at 21:00 at Boston Stadium (Gillette Stadium) in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
