Rabat – Barcelona’s Spanish winger Lamine Yamal has emerged as the leading candidate to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or, according to predictions published by French data analytics and artificial intelligence firm AVISIA.
Yamal leads the rankings with a 23% probability of winning football’s most prestigious individual award, according to French sports outlet Foot Mercato, which reported the firm’s latest projections on Tuesday.
Bayern Munich striker Harry Kane ranks second with 21%, while Real Madrid forward Kylian Mbappé and Manchester City midfielder Rodri share third place with 19% each.
Argentine star Lionel Messi completes the top five with 18%, according to the same predictions.
Despite Yamal’s leading position, the figures suggest a closely contested race, with several high-profile players remaining in contention ahead of the official announcement.
How AI predicts the winner
AVISIA’s predictions rely on a data-driven analytical model that uses a machine-learning technique known as the Random Forest algorithm.
The model draws on the firm’s Player Index to assess multiple factors and estimate each candidate’s chances of winning the award.
These include players’ statistical performances and their impact on their clubs and national teams throughout the season.
The analysis also considers media exposure, engagement across digital platforms, and international visibility. In addition, it examines historical voting patterns among the journalists, coaches, and national team captains involved in selecting the winner.
According to the report, AVISIA previously predicted the top five finishers in the 2025 Ballon d’Or race, which French forward Ousmane Dembélé won.
The firm also recorded a reported 75% success rate in predicting outcomes during the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
However, the projections remain estimates rather than official results. The final outcome will depend on the Ballon d’Or voting process.
Ballon d’Or ceremony set for october 26
The 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremony is scheduled for Monday, October 26, at London’s Palladium Theatre.
The event will begin at 8 p.m. GMT and will mark the 70th edition of the award, which France Football established in 1956.
The ceremony will determine whether Yamal can turn his leading position in AVISIA’s predictions into the biggest individual prize in football or whether one of his experienced rivals will claim the award.
With Kane, Mbappé, Rodri, and Messi also featuring prominently in the projections, the final result remains open ahead of the ceremony.
