Casablanca – The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that delivered diesel prices in major importing regions, including Africa, could rise again in the coming weeks as higher freight rates increase fuel-shipping costs.
Its October Oil Market Report, published on October 14, says wholesale diesel prices topped $200 per barrel in Singapore in mid-September and reached around $220 in Europe and the United States. Prices have eased from those highs, but benchmarks remain nearly double the price of crude oil and their pre-crisis levels.
The IEA also reported that global diesel and gasoil exports averaged 4.7 million barrels a day in the first nine months of 2026, 10% below the same period a year earlier.
Preliminary trade data showed exports at 4.7 million barrels a day in September, nearly 700,000 barrels a day lower than a year earlier. Combined net exports from Russia and the Middle East dropped by 1.3 million barrels a day to 820,000 barrels a day in September.
The agency expects tight diesel supplies to persist well into 2027. It says the industry may not replenish depleted inventories, outside normal seasonal changes, before the second half of next year.
The IEA also links high diesel prices to more expensive goods, lower household purchasing power, weaker economic activity and inflation.
Morocco’s exposure to higher energy prices is reflected in its latest trade figures. The Exchange Office reported that the country’s energy import bill reached MAD 96.37 billion ($9.83 billion) in the first eight months of 2026, up 32.6% from the same period a year earlier. Imports of gas-oil and fuel-oil alone climbed 44.9% to MAD 50.7 billion ($5.17 billion).
The IMF said in its March 2026 assessment that energy imports accounted for 6.3% of Morocco’s GDP in 2025 and warned that higher international energy prices would increase the country’s import bill.
Fuel costs meet new government promises
Head of Government Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri presented the new government’s program to Parliament on October 19, with purchasing power and living conditions among the main public expectations she cited. She also identified the protection of Morocco’s energy and food needs as a priority.
El Mansouri said the government intended to turn its commitments into achievable programs and focus state resources on issues that have a direct impact on people’s daily lives, according to the official government account.
The government has set a target of keeping inflation at 2%, maintaining the budget deficit below 3% of GDP and achieving average annual economic growth of 5% between 2027 and 2031. Its agenda also includes lowering food prices, expanding social assistance for vulnerable households and increasing the role of private investment.
Morocco has already used targeted assistance to help limit the impact of fuel costs. In early October, the outgoing government increased exceptional aid for road transport professionals as pump prices rose. It said the support aimed to maintain public transport fares and ensure the regular supply of goods without passing higher fuel costs on to citizens.
Morocco’s Competition Council found that international diesel quotations rose by a cumulative MAD 4.24 ($0.43) per liter between March 1 and May 16, 2026, while domestic pump prices increased by MAD 4.18 ($0.42) per liter, leaving a gap of MAD 0.06 ($0.006) per liter, according to its latest published analysis.
