Marrakech – Guinea-Bissau’s ruling junta announced Thursday that “security conditions” were not in place for the return of exiled former president Umaro Sissoco Embalo, who has been living in Morocco since the army seized power last November.
The decision came days after Embalo told AFP he would come home and run in a presidential election scheduled for December 6. His supporters had planned a brief visit on Sunday, October 4, to let him meet his camp before the vote.
The military high command rejected that plan in a statement issued after a meeting on the matter. It “determined that at this time the necessary security conditions are not met to guarantee the return to national territory,” adding that the decision followed “an analysis of the national situation and the current security environment.”
The junta framed the move strictly around public order. The measure was “based exclusively on grounds of national security, the preservation of public order, and the prevention of situations likely to compromise social stability and tranquillity,” according to the High Military Command for the Restoration of National Security and Public Order.
The ruling body also called on “all citizens and all entities” to avoid any act that could disturb public order or provoke confrontations, urging “serenity” and “discipline.” It reiterated that restrictions on demonstrations, gatherings, and political meetings, imposed when it took power, remained in force.
The announcement marked a reversal from earlier remarks by General Horta N’Tam, the transitional president and head of the junta. Asked about Embalo last week, N’Tam told a radio journalist that “every Guinean is free to return to their country if they have nothing to be ashamed of.” He went further, noting that “even those who insult me on social media can return if they wish.”
Embalo responded by confirming his candidacy despite the ban. He told supporters he would contest the December election and appealed to the courts, declaring, “I hope the judicial authorities will review our candidacy with impartiality and independence, and in accordance with the principles of justice.”
The former president, who ruled between 2020 and 2025, was overthrown on November 26, one day before provisional results of the presidential and legislative vote were to be announced.
He and the opposition candidate had both claimed victory. Many observers suspected Embalo of orchestrating the coup to halt an election he appeared to be losing, while the military justified its takeover by citing a plot to destabilize the country involving drug lords.
Tensions have since resurfaced inside the security apparatus. On Tuesday, authorities urged calm after social media accounts reported discontent within the presidential guard, where several troops were reportedly transferred to another army unit.
Analysts have questioned the legal grounds for blocking the return. “Legally, nothing stands in the way of Umaro Sissoco Embalo’s return to Guinea-Bissau,” political analyst Malam Cisse told AFP, noting that the ousted leader “did not sign any document renouncing power.”
Since seizing control, the junta has reshaped the political system. In August, voters approved a new constitution with 70% support, shifting the country from a semi-parliamentary model to a strong presidential regime that lets the head of state appoint and dismiss the prime minister and dissolve parliament. The opposition, led by the historic PAIGC, had urged a boycott, denouncing a vote held “in a context of restriction of public freedoms.”
N’Tam, a close associate of Embalo, remains barred from running under the transitional charter adopted in December 2025. It was not immediately clear whether the junta’s latest decision would affect the December timetable.
Guinea-Bissau has experienced five coups and numerous attempted putsches since independence from Portugal in 1974. Its poverty and chronic instability have made it a transit hub for cocaine trafficking between Latin America and Europe.
