Rabat – The Curve COVID-19 in Morocco reached its peak on April 24, and the country will have registered 97% of its total novel coronavirus cases by May 31, the Data-Driven Innovation Lab at the Singapore University of Technology and Design predicts.
Morocco will reach 99% of its total COVID-19 case count by June 20 and completely beat the pandemic one month later, by July 20, the research center predicts, based on data as of April 25.
The Data-Driven Innovation Lab’s “When Will COVID-19 End” uses earlier research about the life cycle of pandemics and incorporates real-time statistics from countries all over the world to adjust its forecasts regularly.
COVID-19, like other pandemics, does not evolve completely randomly but follows a life cycle pattern. The model includes five different phases: The outbreak, the acceleration phase, the inflection point, the deceleration phase, and the ending.
“Such a life cycle is the result of the adaptive and countering behaviors of agents including individuals (avoiding physical contact) and governments (locking down cities), as well as the natural limitations of the ecosystem,” the study explains.
According to the pattern, Morocco is currently in its peak, or “inflection point,” and transitioning into the deceleration phase. On the day of the predicted peak, April 24, Morocco registered 190 new cases.
Due to the difficulty in predicting the pandemic’s end date, the research presents three different predictions: The dates when 97% of the total expected COVID-19 cases are identified, when 99% are identified, and when the last case is identified.
According to the forecasts, the global COVID-19 curve reached its peak on April 11 and the world will detect 97% of the expected cases by May 30. The number of cases will reach 99% on June 17, while the last COVID-19 case in the world would be detected on December 9.
In Africa, the study shows that North African countries—Morocco (4,115 cases as of April 27), Algeria (3,382), and Egypt (4,534)—all reached their peak earlier in April and are transitioning into the deceleration phase.
Meanwhile, South Africa, the hardest-hit African state with 4,546 cases as of April 27, is expected to reach its inflection point on May 3.
According to the study, all countries with over 100,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases, including the US, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the UK, and Turkey, reached their peak several weeks ago and are closing in to the end of the pandemic.
While the research considers that some countries, such as China and South Korea, have already beaten the pandemic, it also forecasts the pandemic could persist until 2021 in other states, such as Qatar and Bahrain.
